THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) is anticipated to recommence its rate-reduction cycle as soon as April due to slower-than-predicted inflation in February, experts suggested.
In a report, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco mentioned that the “door is now wide open for the BSP to continue easing in April.”
“In light of the low inflation setting, we foresee a potential policy rate reduction at the upcoming Monetary Board gathering in April,” stated Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. (Metrobank) Research.
Headline inflation decreased significantly to 2.1% in February from 2.9% in January and 3.4% last year. This also represented the slowest inflation figure in five months.
This lowered the average inflation to 2.5% during the initial two months, well within the central bank’s 2-4% target range.
Pantheon forecasts inflation to stabilize at 2.7% this year, as risks associated with the inflation outlook are skewed to the downside.
Analysts from Nomura Global Markets Research, Euben Paracuelles and Nabila Amani, similarly predict an average inflation rate of 2.7% this year.
Conversely, Metrobank’s inflation projection for the entire year stands at 3.1% “unless significant supply-side shocks occur.”
The central bank indicated that the risks related to the inflation outlook have become “broadly balanced” for this year and the subsequent one. The BSP predicts an average inflation of 3.5% this year.
Experts noted that the within-target inflation trajectory will permit the BSP to persist in its easing approach.
Mr. Chanco indicated that their baseline scenario anticipates a rate cut during the Monetary Board’s April 3 meeting.
“Furthermore, we maintain our belief that the BSP will lower rates by a total of 100 basis points (bps) by the end of the year to 4.75%, one additional 25-bp cut than what the consensus currently foresees,” he added.
Nomura predicts a cumulative 75 bps of cuts this year through the Monetary Board’s meetings in April, August, and December.
“The BSP continues to evaluate the pass-through effect from weakening FX (foreign exchange) as limited and possesses sufficient FX reserves to intervene and mitigate currency volatility, and we believe it will sustain a laissez-faire approach towards FX policy,” they noted.
Despite maintaining the benchmark rate at 5.75% during its February policy review, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. stated they remain in an easing mode.
He highlighted the potential for up to 50 bps of rate cuts this year.
Last year, the central bank reduced borrowing costs by a total of 75 bps through increments of 25 bps at its last three meetings of the year.
GlobalSource Partners country analyst Diwa Guinigundo remarked that the reduced February inflation is likely to have a “substantial impact on both the (BSP’s) baseline and risk-adjusted inflation projections for 2025 and 2026 unless a significant surprise counterbalances that favorable factor.”
“Based on this, and assuming that the risk balance begins to shift towards the midpoint, or the downside, the BSP may be anticipated to recommence easing its monetary policy approach.”
However, Mr. Guinigundo emphasized that “some caution is essential.”
“We cannot overlook the emerging price pressures in the US due to the Trumpian higher tariffs (costlier imports), tax reductions (increased spending), and strict immigration regulations (escalated labor expenses). All these factors could be inflationary.”
Reuters reported another suspension of tariffs directed at Mexico and Canada announced by President Donald J. Trump on Thursday provided little respite to volatile markets.
The exemption will end on April 2 when Mr. Trump indicated he would impose reciprocal tariffs on all US trading partners.
“The US Fed would consequently be more prudent in its easing approach such that if the BSP utilizes its flexibility to ease monetary policy at least twice during the year, any reduction in interest rate differentials with the US could instigate capital flows and weaken the peso,” Mr. Guinigundo stated.
Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell mentioned on Friday that the US central bank will not rush to cut rates as it seeks more clarity on how the policies from the new Trump administration influence the economy.
Mr. Guinigundo remarked that US inflation could “rise again” as global oil markets may face disruptions.
“Indeed, nobody benefits in a trade war, with higher yet elusive inflation possibly serving as silent evidence,” he added. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson
