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Polymarket gamblers have now predicted a 12% likelihood that former FTX head Sam Bankman-Fried will receive a pardon this year, following Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao being exempted from penalties this week.
Polymarket probabilities for “Who will Trump pardon in 2025” witnessed SBF’s chances increase from 5.6% to 12% within 12 hours, with over $6.5 million in wagers placed in that market, including $302,090 for the convicted crypto swindler.
Another market regarding whether SBF will be “Released from custody in 2025” climbed from 4.3% to 19.1% before retracting to 15.5%.
While SBF has submitted an appeal to lessen his 25-year sentence, it seems improbable that there would be any major advancements before the end of the year, indicating a pardon from Trump might be his only viable route to release prior to January.
Nonetheless, CZ’s pardon has inevitably ignited discussions on whether SBF merits comparable consideration, with numerous voices arguing that he should not.
Four months vs. 25 years isn’t analogous, industry experts assert
Many evaluated the gravity of their offenses, emphasizing that CZ breached US Anti-Money Laundering regulations by permitting unlawful funds to circulate through Binance, whereas SBF was convicted of fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering for misusing several billion dollars in customer assets.
CZ received a four-month sentence, while SBF was dealt a 25-year prison term last year.
Crypto attorney Jake Chervinsky stated he would be “truly astonished” if the Trump administration pardoned SBF, highlighting that SBF was a “Democratic mega-donor before FTX suddenly collapsed in November 2022.
“His name is part punchline, part curse word in DC. Not a single serious individual desires this.”
Related: Trump on CZ pardon: I’m told ‘what he did is not even a crime’
Sasha Hodder, the founder of the crypto law firm Hodder Law, mentioned that the gravity of CZ’s offense was nowhere close to the magnitude of SBF’s or former Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon.
“Contrary to SBF or Do Kwon, CZ wasn’t charged with purloining user funds or deceiving customers. Binance functioned as a legitimate exchange. Withdrawals consistently operated. His ‘offense’ was regulatory, not immoral in a broader sense.”
In regards to the pardon, Trump noted he was informed that what CZ did was “not even a crime” and that he was “targeted by the Biden administration.”
CZ is a prominent supporter of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial crypto platform.
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