Bitcoin’s Future Might Depend on Trump’s Fed Chair Selection: Insights from an Analyst

Bitcoin’s forthcoming significant rise may hinge less on halving myths and more on personnel dynamics in Washington. In a market note dated August 18 on X, economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger contended that the cycle’s length will be dictated by the Federal Reserve’s leadership transition—specifically, who President Trump selects to succeed Jerome Powell—rather than by any established four-year rhythm. “I confidently believe this cycle is not concluded because I anticipate leadership changes in the Fed to introduce substantially more accommodative monetary policy, which isn’t factored in yet; this would begin to be integrated once Trump reveals his nominee to replace Powell,” Krüger stated.

Bitcoin Bullish Trend Relies on New Fed Chair

Krüger dismissed concerns that a retreat from record peaks signals the end, remarking on the “surprising nature of how each time there’s a correction from new highs, many individuals start worrying about the cycle’s peak. Repeatedly.” He reaffirmed his ongoing criticism of the halving-cycle doctrine: “The idea of a four-year cycle in 2025 is misguided; [it] ceased to exist two cycles ago, and 2021 was merely coincidental, driven by macro factors.” In his opinion, the previous cycle concluded due to the Fed adopting an “ultra-hawkish” stance in January 2022, not due to any inherent Bitcoin dynamics.

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The nomination clock is ticking. Powell’s existing four-year term as chair is set to conclude on May 15, 2026, and reports from the past fortnight suggest the White House has trimmed its shortlist to “three or four” candidates, with an announcement potentially arriving sooner than anticipated. Names mentioned in mainstream media include former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and NEC Director Kevin Hassett, among others, highlighting the market’s attention on how dovish—or not—the next chair could be.

In the short term, the policy agenda still influences market movements. Powell’s final Jackson Hole appearance, scheduled for the symposium from August 21–23, is widely regarded as a key moment before the September FOMC. Consensus analysis underscores the risk that Powell may lean hawkish to maintain options, even as rates markets bet on a cut next month; Krüger leans “slightly bearish into it as a hawkish speech (to diminish the odds of a September cut) makes sense, for the Fed to keep its options open and avoid letting the market corner itself.”

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has cooled down after reaching new all-time peaks in mid-July and again last week. Traders are monitoring the previous $112,000 high as an initial downside buffer, while the crucial psychological $100,000 threshold, the upper reference remains the $122,000–$124,000 range of recent highs. Krüger further notes that “BTC is struggling to rise without leverage and without external triggers,” a sentiment echoed by derivatives indicators showing a compressed risk appetite.

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Derivatives and volatility indicators confirm the “low-volatility, gradual ascent” scenario he describes. Implied volatility on BTC options (DVOL/BVIV) has lingered near two-year lows, and open interest on institutional platforms remains below July peaks, indicating a more cautious approach from leveraged participants leading into Jackson Hole. Krüger also noted that the futures basis has relaxed along with the pullback—a classic indication of excess froth subsiding—while options markets are showing renewed demand for downside protection during dips.

The overarching macro theme is clear: if the Fed chair nomination leans dovish, the markets will begin to anticipate a looser stance well before the first policy adjustment, prolonging the cycle; if the nominee (and subsequent guidance) leans restrictive, the liquidity boost that fueled Bitcoin’s post-ETF surge will diminish marginally.

Currently, immediate catalysts are lined up—Powell at Jackson Hole, followed by PCE, NFP, CPI, and PPI ahead of September’s FOMC—while prices trade within well-defined boundaries amid suppressed volatility. As Krüger stated, bull markets “do not end due to valuations or over-extension; the conclusion necessitates a significant trigger.” In 2025, that trigger may very well be a name.

At the time of writing, BTC was priced at $115,683.

Featured image generated with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com