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The Ethereum (ETH) market has opened up a new phase of optimistic momentum after definitively surpassing the long-held resistance at the $4,000 mark. The leading altcoin is currently trading at approximately $4,200, which translates to an estimated 180% increase from market lows of $1,500 in May 2025. Looking ahead, a market analyst known as CryptoOnChain presents a potential price forecast for Ethereum, outlining both short- and long-term perspectives for the asset.
On-Chain Data Indicates Long-Term Optimism for ETH, Short-Term Risk
In a QuickTake entry on CryptoQuant, CryptoOnChain provides analysis on Ethereum’s prospective price movements based on recent activity across exchanges. The digital asset analyst mentions that after rising from the $2,400 range, ETH has surged to about $4,215, nearly reaching the formidable $4,400 resistance level that has historically functioned as a significant supply obstacle. While momentum indicators like the MACD and buying volume remain favorable, the approach towards this resistance brings potential for short-term selling pressure.
In addition, CryptoOnChain highlights that on-chain exchange analytics show a divergence between overall market trends and specific activity related to Binance. Notably, Ethereum’s Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) across all exchanges has experienced a consistent decrease since 2022, now measuring around 0.16. This trend implies that investors are progressively withdrawing ETH from trading platforms, which decreases sell-side liquidity and bolsters market confidence in the asset’s long-term price prospects.
Nonetheless, Binance’s ESR has been increasing since early 2025, currently sitting at about 0.04. This localized uptick suggests that some ETH holders might be transferring coins back to Binance, possibly for short-term profit-taking, arbitrage opportunities, or to engage in exchange-specific initiatives. Adding to the cautious sentiment, Binance’s exchange net flow has recently observed a significant rise in positive inflows, as Ethereum approaches critical resistance at $4,400, indicating a potential intent to sell.
The combination of these metrics presents a picture of enduring strength but immediate risk for the Ethereum market. From a broader perspective, the ongoing drop in the all-exchange ESR points towards a healthier supply-demand equilibrium for ETH. However, the localized increase of ETH on Binance, the world’s largest exchange, coupled with heightened net inflows, suggests that sellers might be getting ready to secure profits in the short term.
Ethereum Price Projection
As of this moment, Ethereum is priced at $4,230, reflecting a 4.62% gain over the past 24 hours. However, the asset’s daily trading volume has decreased by 12.08%. Taking the current ESR report into account, CryptoOnChain outlines two potential scenarios.
In a bullish scenario, a rapid decline in Binance’s net inflows or stabilization in the exchange’s ESR could pave the way for ETH to break decisively past the $4,400 threshold, with $4,800 as the next price aim amid the possibility of revisiting all-time highs. Conversely, if strong inflows into Binance continue and the price struggles to surpass $4,400, ETH may experience a short-term pullback, potentially retracing to the $3,950–$4,000 support zone before attempting another breakout.
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