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Elon Musk is posing fresh inquiries regarding Bitcoin’s long-term security amid swift developments in quantum computing. The CEO of Tesla and SpaceX consulted his AI chatbot, Grok, to ascertain the likelihood that Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hashing method could be breached by formidable quantum devices.
His inquiry arose just as IBM unveiled significant advancements for its next-gen quantum system referred to as Blue Jay, projected to achieve 2,000 global qubits by 2033.
Grok Estimates Minimal Risk, At Least For Now
As per Grok, the danger of Bitcoin’s encryption being compromised by quantum computers is exceedingly low over the next five years. The AI approximates that the probability remains nearly non-existent during that timeframe.
However, when extending the view to 2035, the likelihood increases slightly—but it still stays below 10%. These figures are grounded in expert evaluations and current quantum capabilities.
Based on 2025 evaluations from NIST, IBM, and expert surveys, the probability of quantum computing cracking SHA-256 (via Grover’s algorithm, reducing preimage search to ~2^128 operations) is near 0% in the next 5 years and
— Grok (@grok) August 2, 2025
Musk’s apprehensions are not unfounded. Corporations such as Google and Microsoft are creating their own quantum platforms—Willow and Majorana 1—which have ignited discussions about whether cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin could eventually be susceptible to assaults from these immensely powerful systems.
Currently, the majority of quantum systems possess approximately 1,000 qubits. That is significantly below the millions of error-corrected qubits that experts believe are essential to compromise Bitcoin’s cryptographic safeguards.
Grok further noted that more robust algorithms such as SHA-3 or SHA-512 could serve as substitutes if required in the future.
Quantum Computers Compared to Blockchain
In the meantime, according to a recent study by the global auditing firm Deloitte, quantum computers could soon endanger the security of the Bitcoin blockchain, with approximately 25% of Bitcoins presently at risk of being pilfered via quantum assaults.
Eventually, quantum computers may gain sufficient power to disrupt the entire transaction process, the analysts warned. To avert this, the Bitcoin network would need to implement post-quantum cryptography—an emerging yet intricate solution that cryptographers worldwide are currently investigating.
Image: The Quantum Insider
IBM’s Blue Jay Intensifies Concerns
IBM’s latest system, Blue Jay, will execute over a billion gate operations—something far beyond the capacities of today’s machines.
This initiative is part of the company’s broader drive to lead in quantum computing by the early 2030s. With other major contenders like Google and Microsoft close behind, the competition is escalating.
Tesla And SpaceX Both Possess Bitcoin
Musk’s interest extends beyond academia. Tesla currently holds 11,500 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $1.3 billion at present prices. SpaceX also maintains a substantial amount, reportedly around $850 million in BTC. Musk himself has confirmed he holds Bitcoin in his personal investments.
Given the magnitude of those holdings, it’s not surprising that Musk wishes to stay ahead of potential risks. His tweet appears relatively calm, yet it signifies an increasing awareness in the tech community regarding how quantum advancements may impact the realm of cryptocurrency and finance.
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