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A closely monitored technical analyst asserts the prospects for altcoins will remain unstable until Bitcoin surpasses a clearly defined barrier between $120,000 and $123,000, claiming that the weekly graph still necessitates vigilance while momentum is lacking.
Why Altcoins Remain In The Risk Zone
Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) characterized the existing situation plainly: “This weekly BTC graph remains the most crucial chart for us to scrutinize. As long as it stays below the 120–123K range and the descending resistance on the weekly RSI, I must stay prudent.” He mentioned that he would become “the most optimistic person on the timeline” once those thresholds are surpassed, but “until that occurs, we regard it as significant resistance.”
Kevin’s analysis connects the altcoin trajectory directly to Bitcoin’s capacity to move higher. In a subsequent comment, he cautioned that sentiment had shifted at exactly the wrong times: “Most of the #Crypto timeline turned incredibly optimistic at a 4-year historical resistance and was extremely pessimistic at key support back in April and even June.”
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He implied that it is wise to avoid pursuing enthusiasm under resistance and to “err on the side of caution while #BTC and Total 2/#ETH remain below these critical thresholds.” By mentioning Total2—the total market cap of crypto excluding Bitcoin—and Ethereum, Kevin effectively suggested that the broader risk-on impulse for altcoins is improbable to endure without a significant Bitcoin breakout.
Macro conditions are a variable factor in his analysis, but not yet a trigger. “TheJuly FOMC was always destined to be unremarkable with not much at stake,” he noted, mentioning that two additional rounds of data will arrive before the September session and that “projections are about 50/50.” He directed traders to Core PCE as the next important milestone, while reiterating that he’ll “be the most optimistic” only if price and momentum confirm above the emphasized range. Until that moment, he plans to “manage risk appropriately and observe as events unfold.”
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Market dynamics and volatility might dictate the timeline. “#BTC is poised to make a move soon after volatility has plummeted dramatically over the past week,” Kevin remarked, emphasizing that compressed price ranges generally precede directional expansion.
In his perspective, this expansion needs to coincide with a breakthrough of both price resistance and the “downward resistance on the weekly RSI” to activate a stronger bullish scenario. Lacking that alignment, he views the arrangement as a typical setup for altcoins, which have historically underperformed when Bitcoin is limited and dominance rises within ranges.
Kevin’s position, expressed through posts on July 30–31, reflects conditional optimism: the structural bull argument for the asset class remains valid only if Bitcoin demonstrates this by surpassing the $120,000–$123,000 range and reversing its weekly momentum profile. “Just be cautious about whom you follow folks,” he warned. “There are some good ones, but many are not.”
For the time being, he maintains a distinctly cautious stance on altcoins while Bitcoin and the primary breadth indicators linger below those thresholds, with the upcoming critical assessments likely to be influenced by data releases into September and a volatility breakout that ultimately selects a direction.
At the time of writing, the complete altcoin market valuation (TOTAL2) rested at $1.48 trillion.
Featured image generated with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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