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The value of Bitcoin could experience notable growth in 2026, defying the conventional four-year market cycle, as per Bitwise’s chief investment officer Matt Hougan.
This forecast emerges as various analysts are split on whether Bitcoin (BTC) will deviate from its past trends or adhere to the conventional halving cycle and reach its peak in the upcoming months.
Hougan states Bitcoin could have a “promising few years”
“I predict that 2026 will be a positive year,” Hougan remarked in a video on X on Friday. “I generally believe we are in for a promising few years,” Hougan added.
Hougan mentioned that the four-year halving cycle “is no longer relevant” for several reasons, including that the significance of Bitcoin halving diminishes “half as much” every four years, and that the interest rate cycle is favorable for cryptocurrency. Since April, US President Donald Trump has been urging Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, which could act as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin, as decreasing rates render traditional investments like bonds and fixed deposits less attractive to investors.
Hougan also noted that the likelihood of substantial price declines has diminished as the sector gains increased clarity on regulations. “The risk of failure is lessened, due to better regulations and the institutionalization of the industry,” Hougan explained.
He stated that given the ongoing regulatory developments and the nascent stage of institutional uptake, Bitcoin likely possesses greater upside potential in this cycle than past trends indicate:
“The long-term pro-crypto influences will surpass the traditional ‘four-year cycle’ influences, should they exist, and that 2026 will indeed be a positive year.”
Hougan expressed that the most crucial “cyclical-style risk” for Bitcoin is the emergence of Bitcoin treasury firms. “It warrants observation and is significant,” Hougan commented.
Asset management firm VanEck recently voiced similar concerns, cautioning that corporations accumulating Bitcoin by issuing new stock or incurring debt are especially susceptible.
VanEck indicated these companies could be overstretched if Bitcoin’s value drops sharply.
Bitcoin more prone to a “steady sustained rise”
Nonetheless, Hougan anticipated that Bitcoin’s price surge will be gradual rather than rapid in the short term. “I believe it’s more a “steady sustained rise” than a super-cycle,” he mentioned.
“I might be mistaken, and I acknowledge there will be considerable volatility,” he added.
This statement follows closely after CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared that the Bitcoin four-year cycle theory “is no longer valid.”
Related: Bitcoin bulls assert control as BTC price climbs to $118K
“My forecasts were based on it — buy when big holders accumulate, sell when retail enters. However, that pattern no longer persists,” Ju observed.
“In the last cycle, big holders sold to retail. This time, older whales will sell to newer long-term whales. Institutional acceptance is more significant than we previously believed,” Ju added.
Nonetheless, not everyone agrees that the pattern has altered. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently warned that Bitcoin might only have a brief period of price growth remaining in the cycle, particularly if it adheres to the same historical trajectory from 2020.
Rekt explained that if the Bitcoin cycle mirrors the 2020 trend, the market will likely peak in October, which is 550 days post the Bitcoin halving in April 2024.
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