Bitcoin Surge May Be Deceptive—Expert Foresees Turbulence Before Hitting $160,000

Bitcoin may be about to surge—but hold off on celebrating. Crypto analyst Cristian Chifoi cautions that the present movement is a misleading setup likely to ensnare optimistic traders before Bitcoin ultimately rises towards $160,000. In his latest YouTube video titled “Bitcoin is breaking out! But why is it detrimental?”, Chifoi dissects the enthusiasm surrounding Bitcoin’s recent price movements, contending that this upswing is not the initiation of a genuine bull market, but a transient false signal aimed at deception.

Beware of the Bitcoin Surge

“From a technical perspective, this could indicate a legitimate breakout, retest, and successive movement,” Chifoi acknowledges. “However, in my view, this is a deceptive breakout that might reach a new minor all-time high, perhaps $113,000, maybe $120,000 until around July 10 to 12—then we revert back into this range before July 20.” His theory relies on Bitcoin’s seasonal patterns he has examined in previous videos, suggesting that the actual macro pivot will only become evident later in the month. “I’m more optimistic from July 20 into early September,” he asserts.

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Chifoi posits that retail investors are likely to jump in during the breakout retest phase, only to be shaken out as market creators utilize the liquidity to reverse the trend. “Most retail traders would go long on a retest here. The market makers will capitalize on this,” he warns, forecasting a trap that could pull Bitcoin down to levels around $97,000 before the genuine uptrend resumes.

His examination goes beyond mere technical patterns. Chifoi highlights macroeconomic sentiments and Federal Reserve policies as vital context, particularly noting that interest rate reductions would actually signal bearish trends—not bullish as commonly perceived. “Rate cuts this year would not be bullish in any way,” he affirms. “It’s not Powell who determines this, but the bond market that dictates when the rate cuts should occur… and when that happens, it signals a need for emergency cuts.”

Chifoi emphasizes that the best-case scenario for bullish investors is the absence of rate cuts, at least for the immediate future. “Just maintain the rates at 4.5% until possibly the end of the year. If this occurs, I’m entirely confident that the market will continue to rise before any cuts start.”

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Beyond Bitcoin, Chifoi anticipates a coordinated movement across the broader cryptocurrency market once the July 20 pivot occurs. He highlights Ethereum, XRP, decentralized finance tokens like CRV, and ISO-compliant cryptocurrencies such as IOTA, ADA, and Quant as potential beneficiaries. “Bitcoin would draw the entire crypto sector along with it,” he states, adding that established projects like Filecoin and Polkadot could also see increased interest.

Mid-Term Price Forecast

Looking further ahead, Chifoi describes the upcoming phase as a “stablecoin super cycle,” with DeFi initiatives and yield-generating protocols positioned to benefit the most from Wall Street’s appetite for returns. “In crypto, only DeFi projects provide yields,” he clarifies. “Wall Street is boiling over for yields.”

He also reconfirms his macro thesis that the existing financial structure is poised for replacement, likening the shift to the transition from gold to fiat in the 1930s. “After a century of this identical system, it should be succeeded by another system infused with liquidity,” he envisions, anticipating a future of cryptographic banking.

Despite the anticipated short-term volatility, Chifoi remains optimistic for the long term. His price prediction of $160,000 for Bitcoin by early September reflects a belief in accelerated growth—driven by seasonal trends, postponed policy shifts, and broader acceptance.

In conclusion, Chifoi encourages his followers to broaden their perspective and trust in the high timeframe indicators. Referring to Bollinger Bands on the two-month chart, he observes the onset of another expansion phase akin to late 2020. “Following that, the bear market commences,” he cautions. Yet until then, the ride could be rapid—and exceptionally volatile.

“The next time we enact [rate cuts], it will be significant, indicating something is amiss,” he concludes. “For the moment, we simply desire the cuts to go higher for longer.”

As of press time, BTC was trading at $108,848.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com