“`html
THE BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reduced policy rates for the second consecutive meeting on Thursday and indicated at least one additional reduction this year to bolster economic expansion.
The Monetary Board on Thursday decreased the target reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25% from 5.5%, as anticipated by 15 out of 16 analysts in a BusinessWorld survey conducted last week. This represents the lowest level in two and a half years.
Rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities were also decreased to 4.75% and 5.75%, respectively.
“If circumstances continue as expected, we will likely implement another cut (by 25 bps),” BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. stated during a briefing.
The Monetary Board has three more policy meetings planned for this year.
“Overall, the Monetary Board perceives the necessity for a more supportive monetary policy approach. Emerging threats to inflation from escalating geopolitical tensions and external policy uncertainties demand careful observation,” he noted.
Mr. Remolona also pointed out a potential deceleration in the global economy, primarily due to the uncertainty stemming from US tariff policies and the conflicts in the Middle East.
“This could result in slower growth in the Philippines,” he commented.
Economic officials are aiming for 6-8% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) this year. In the first quarter, GDP expanded at a slower-than-anticipated 5.4%.
Mr. Remolona indicated that the forecast for inflation has “moderated” and expectations remain “well-anchored.” Inflation fell to 1.3% in May, the slowest rate in over five years and below the target range of 2-4%.
The BSP revised its inflation projection down to 1.6% for this year from 2.4%.
However, it marginally increased its estimates for 2026 to 3.4% from 3.3% previously, and for 2027 to 3.3% from 3.2% earlier.
“An increase in oil prices, adjustments in electricity rates, and escalated rice tariffs would add to inflationary pressures,” Mr. Remolona stated.
Reuters reported that oil prices surged early Thursday, driven by concerns that a broader conflict in the Middle East could disrupt crude oil supplies. Brent crude climbed nearly 1% to $77.40 a barrel, approaching its highest level since January.
BSP Deputy Governor Zeno R. Abenoja mentioned that a potential rise in oil production, along with subdued demand from the global economy, “could help stabilize oil prices below the peaks we observed in the past year.”
“However, despite the latest figures on international oil prices, they remain relatively lower than what we saw last year,” he added.
Mr. Abenoja asserted that the Monetary Board remains “very vigilant” regarding developments in the Middle East, as any further increase in oil prices could contribute to inflationary pressures.
Mr. Remolona also emphasized that it would be “futile” to intervene in the currency market amidst global risk aversion.
“We won’t have sufficient reserves to do that,” he remarked.
Mr. Remolona mentioned that the BSP might need to intervene “more seriously if the (peso) depreciation continues” for a few more weeks, as this could fuel inflation.
The peso concluded at P57.45 per dollar on Thursday, declining by 47 centavos from its P56.98 close on Wednesday. This was the peso’s weakest finish in nearly three months, or since its P57.69 per dollar close on March 26.
Mr. Remolona added that the BSP will continue to prioritize controlling inflation in its forthcoming policy decisions.
“By the way, we are an inflation-targeting central bank, so inflation remains our top priority.”
He stated that the BSP does not need to move in unison with the US Federal Reserve since the interest rate differential can still be upheld.
Starting August 2024, the BSP cut rates at three consecutive meetings but paused at its February meeting. It decreased rates by 25 bps in April.
OUTLOOK
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. Chief Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa remarked that target-consistent inflation enabled the BSP to support the Philippine economy amid external headwinds.
“We anticipate the BSP to be receptive to further rate reductions in the upcoming months, although adjustments will depend on incoming economic data,” he stated.
Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco indicated in an email that the BSP’s ongoing easing “remains a no-brainer, especially with inflation comfortably treading below the BSP’s 2-to-4% target range.”
“We believe that the current period of headline disinflation has reached its lowest point, but the upcoming reversion upward, at least initially, is likely to occur gradually, maintaining inflation below the 2% lower bound for the remainder of this year,” Mr. Chanco noted.
He observed that the economy will face challenges in finding upward momentum, with GDP growth projected to slow to 5.3% this year, down from 5.7% in 2024.
“The surge in global oil prices over the past week or so amid the intensification of hostilities between Israel and Iran poses only a risk, for now, to our below-consensus inflation (1.8% for 2025) and policy rate forecasts,” he added.
Mr. Chanco foresees two additional 25-bps rate cuts this year before “pausing indefinitely.” — AMCS
Source link
“`
