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CRUCIAL economic indicators and corporate outcomes might assist Philippine equities in maintaining their momentum this month after international trade anxieties unsettled markets in April, even dragging the local stock index to a multi-year low.
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) concluded April positively as it surged by 1.64% or 102.80 points to finish at 6,354.99 on Tuesday.
On a month-to-month basis, the PSEi also increased by 2.82% or 174.27 points from its 6,180.72 close on March 31.
The market was not operational on Thursday due to Labor Day.
“The market succeeded in posting a gain in April despite the volatility caused by US President Donald J. Trump’s tariffs,” AP Securities, Inc. Research Head Alfred Benjamin R. Garcia communicated via Viber.
“While we anticipate the same issue to influence the market this upcoming month, investors will likely take into account local elements such as first-quarter earnings and gross domestic product (GDP) figures,” Mr. Garcia stated. “May is traditionally a weaker month, so that should also be factored in. Nevertheless, our outlook for the remainder of the year remains moderately optimistic, supported by what we perceive as an undeserved undervaluation of Philippine stocks.”
On April 2, which Mr. Trump labeled as “Liberation Day” for the US, Washington declared it would impose “reciprocal” tariffs on most of its key trading partners, including the Philippines.
The PSEi on April 7 dropped to 5,822.85, its lowest closing in over two-and-a-half years or since it ended at 5,783.15 on Oct. 3, 2022, as Mr. Trump reaffirmed his directive, igniting trade war anxieties.
However, Mr. Trump postponed the increased tariffs for 90 days beginning April 9, instead instituting a blanket 10% tariff until July. Nations are currently negotiating trade agreements with the US.
DragonFi Securities, Inc. Equity Research Analyst Jarrod Leighton M. Tin noted in a Viber message that alleviating trade worries allowed the PSEi to recover the losses experienced early last month.
“The market was additionally supported by a 25-basis-point rate reduction and positive first-quarter 2025 earnings from prominent index players, helping to secure a strong monthly close,” Mr. Tin remarked. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas on April 10 recommenced its easing cycle after an unexpected halt in February, lowering the policy rate to 5.50%.
“Looking towards May, investors will closely monitor for ongoing advancements in global trade de-escalation. Trade discussions between the Philippines and the US will also attract attention. A successful endeavor for reduced tariffs could significantly uplift market sentiment,” he continued.
For this month, the PSEi may continue to fluctuate between 6,100 to 6,500 with a positive inclination, Unicapital Securities, Inc. Research Head Wendy B. Estacio-Cruz stated in a Viber message. “Some catalysts we foresee are April’s inflation rate and first-quarter GDP growth rate.”
The Philippine Statistics Authority will disclose April inflation figures on May 6 and first-quarter GDP figures on May 8. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave
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