Bitcoin (BTC) faces the possibility of descending into a new bear market as a significant set of BTC price indicators has shown a “bearish divergence.”
During a discussion on social media on March 27, Bitcoin analysts highlighted concerning signals from Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin Macro Index.
Creator says Bitcoin Macro Index decline is “not ideal”
As BTC/USD struggles to regain the vicinity of its all-time highs, onchain indicators are starting to lose their bullish momentum.
The Bitcoin Macro Index, developed by Capriole in 2022, employs machine learning to evaluate data from numerous indicators that founder Charles Edwards states “provide a strong indication of Bitcoin’s relative value across historical cycles.”
“The model solely focuses on onchain and macro-market data. Uniquely, price data and technical analysis are excluded as inputs in this model,” he clarified when introducing the tool initially.
Since late 2023, the indicator has been producing lower highs while the price generates higher highs, resulting in a “bearish divergence.” While this is a common phenomenon in past bull markets, it suggests that BTC/USD may have already reached a long-term peak.
“Not ideal,” Edwards commented while sharing a screenshot of the Index posted on X by another user.
“But… when the Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive, I won’t resist it.”
Capriole Bitcoin Macro Index. Source: @A_Trade_Academy/X
BTC price indicators face recovery challenges
Related: Bitcoin price prediction markets forecast BTC won’t exceed $138K in 2025
In one of its “Quicktake” blog postings this week, the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant identified four onchain metrics that are currently unstable.
“All these metrics indicate that Bitcoin is encountering considerable turbulence in the short to mid-term,” contributor Burak Kesmeci stated.
“However, none of them suggest that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top condition.”
Bitcoin IFP chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
The list comprises the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unspent Profit/Loss (NUPL), in addition to the so-called Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric, which turned bearish in February.
For this to change, Kesmeci concluded, the IFP must rise above its 90-day simple moving average (SMA).
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading actions carry risk, and readers should perform their own research prior to making a decision.
