By Adrian H. Halili, Reporter
LOCAL RICE OUTPUT is anticipated to bounce back in 2025, an analyst indicated, referencing minimal base influences.
“It will probably be an upturn since we are commencing with a low foundation in 2024, where palay output had decreased by a million metric tons (MT), based on our calculations,” Former Agriculture Undersecretary Fermin D. Adriano remarked in a Viber message.
Previously, the Department of Agriculture indicated that palay or unmilled rice output would probably decline to 19.3 million MT in 2024.
The agricultural sector suffered adverse effects from dry spells and droughts induced by El Niño in the initial half, alongside substantial rainfalls and typhoons in the latter half of 2024.
If this materializes, rice production would drop by 3.63% from the actual output of 20.06 million MT in 2023. This would also mark the lowest rice production since the 19.29 million MT recorded in 2020.
In the meantime, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) stated that milled rice production for 2025 is expected to decrease by 3% due to the ramifications of the El Niño and La Niña occurrences.
The USDA indicated that milled rice production could likely dip to 11.95 million MT in 2025 from the 12.32 million MT predicted for 2024.
Roehlano M. Briones, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, noted in a Viber message that rice production is likely to recover in 2025 attributed to an enhancement in productivity.
“There is no direction but upwards because we hit rock bottom (in 2024), unless natural disasters again affect our rice-producing regions,” Mr. Adriano stated.
Prior to its conclusion in June 2024, El Niño led to drought and dry conditions impacting agricultural yields.
Farm losses due to El Niño reached P15.3 billion, as per the DA’s final assessment. Losses in rice crops amounted to P5.93 billion or 38.8% of the total. The lost volume equated to 330,717 MT across 109,481 hectares of farmland.
During the fourth quarter, several storms affected the nation. The DA estimated that agricultural losses due to typhoons Kristine and Leon totaled P9.81 billion, spanning 183,877 hectares of land and resulting in a production loss of 380,704 MT.
Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort of Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. stated that rice production in 2025 “should be more promising,” given the increased rainfall during La Niña.
“As La Niña is anticipated to persist until early first quarter of 2025, assuming there are no significant storms or flood damages. Contrary to the El Niño from the latter part of 2023 until June 2024, which reduced rainfall and rice output, along with a series of powerful storms since July 2024,” he conveyed in a Viber message.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that La Niña-like conditions are currently dominating the tropical Pacific.
“La Niña conditions for December to February 2024-25 are favored, with a return to ENSO-neutral circumstances beginning in March-April-May,” PAGASA stated in its latest monitoring report as of December 18.
Weather patterns that do not align with either El Niño or La Niña are categorized as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral.
Additionally, Mr. Briones projected that rice prices in 2025 would be “below the average of 2024.”
The government had reduced tariffs on imported rice to 15% from 35% until 2028 to decrease rice prices.
“Rice prices are likely to diminish considering the influx of rice imports from last year, although this will be a gradual process,” Mr. Adriano indicated.
He remarked that typical milled rice is expected to remain between P38 and P40 per kilogram due to elevated input expenses.
In a prior report, Fitch Solutions’ subsidiary BMI forecasted that global rice prices are anticipated to decrease in 2025 as India has relaxed restrictions on exports of white rice.
Last September, India’s Directorate of Foreign Trade lifted the export ban on non-basmati white rice, citing sufficient inventory levels.
According to the USDA, the Philippines remains the world’s leading rice importer. It is projected that the Philippines will import 5.3 million MT of rice in 2025.
