As the year draws to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to soar to unprecedented heights, creating optimistic projections for the remainder of the cycle. The latest reports from Bitfinex indicate when BTC’s summit may arrive and how much potential growth remains for the leading cryptocurrency.
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Bitcoin’s ‘Distinct’ Cycle
In its most recent Alpha Report, Bitfinex emphasized the substantial advancements in adoption and public acknowledgment within the crypto sector this year, which have distinguished this cycle from earlier ones.
Significantly, the introduction and surging institutional interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have exceeded expectations and drawn a “new category of investors” to the crypto arena.
According to the report, this cycle has been “distinct” as these newly attracted investors through ETFs and increasing trust in the industry have propelled BTC’s price to a new all-time high (ATH) ahead of the Halving event, which historically leads the flagship crypto to achieve a new peak within 5-7 months.
The industry has also witnessed a rising fascination with diversifying national reserves using cryptocurrencies, as several jurisdictions globally contemplate establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve following the recent performance of the flagship crypto.
Bitfinex analysts contend that these elements have resulted in BTC’s corrections being shallower than in prior cycles and are likely to sustain this trend throughout the remainder of the bull run:
In the current bullish cycle, which commenced in mid to late 2023, Bitcoin’s corrections have been less severe, especially since the rollout of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. With institutional and ETF demand generating consistent purchasing pressure, we anticipate this trend to persist, keeping future corrections limited and possibly shorter in duration.
Additionally, the impending crypto-friendly US administration has contributed to the increasing bullish sentiment surrounding the sector, resulting in a significant post-election surge. Consequently, the crypto market has expanded by 130% year-to-date (YTD), reaching a market valuation of $3.69 trillion, nearly a 70% increase this quarter.
What Comes Next for Bitcoin in This Cycle?
The report highlighted Bitcoin’s achievements, noting its impressive 573% rise from its 2022 low of $15,487. The leading cryptocurrency has also experienced a 130% increase year-to-date (YTD), driven by this year’s sector milestones.
Earlier this month, Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 threshold for the first time, setting a new ATH nearing the $110,000 mark on Monday. According to Bitfinex, there remain multiple levels for the cryptocurrency to ascend in 2025, as historical trends suggest that the market is mid-cycle.
This information implies BTC’s price could peak around Q3 and Q4 2025, as it typically does approximately 450 days after halving. Meanwhile, indicators such as Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), and the Bull-Bear market metric suggest that “we remain in the bullish phase but well short of euphoric highs.”
Bitfinex also pointed out that the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been adept at predicting cycle peaks, with forecasts operating within a three-day window. Past cycle predictions imply that Bitcoin might peak between mid-2025 and early-2026.
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If it adheres to the 2021 cycle model, BTC may experience a 40% upswing to $339,000 and reach a peak around June or July 2025. However, the report observes that the leading cryptocurrency has shown a pattern of diminishing returns across cycles.
Given this, Bitcoin’s price may instead see an increase of 15% to 20% within the $160,000-$200,000 range. Nevertheless, should the cryptocurrency replicate the 2017 cycle pattern, BTC’s rally could extend until January of 2026, peaking at $229,000 while exhibiting similar diminishing returns.
At the time of this writing, BTC is trading at $107,729, only 0.3% below its ATH.
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
