By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter
THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) is anticipated to lower rates for a fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday, analysts indicated, in light of target-compliant inflation and disappointing gross domestic product (GDP).
A BusinessWorld survey conducted last week revealed that 19 out of 20 analysts foresee the Monetary Board reducing the target reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points (bps) during its policy evaluation on Feb. 13.
If this occurs, it would decrease the benchmark rate from the current 5.75% to 5.5%.
This would also signify the fourth consecutive meeting in which the BSP has reduced rates since commencing its easing cycle in August.
In 2024, the central bank has diminished borrowing costs by a total of 75 bps.
Conversely, one analyst anticipates that the central bank will maintain interest rates unchanged during the meeting.
“We foresee the BSP reducing the policy rate by 25 bps to 5.5% at its Monetary Board meeting,” stated Security Bank Corp. Vice-President and Head of Research Division Angelo B. Taningco.
Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco from Pantheon Macroeconomics remarked that monetary policy normalization is “far from finished” given the high interest rates.
“I anticipate the Monetary Board will cut further this week, by an additional 25 bps, especially with the fourth-quarter GDP coming in weaker than anticipated and with inflation consistently within the BSP’s target range,” he mentioned.
Citi Economist for the Philippines Nalin Chutchotitham stated that the BSP is likely to implement a 25-bp cut on Thursday following below-par growth in 2024 and a moderate inflation forecast.
Previously, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said that a rate cut remains “on the table” for this week.
“The central bank might use the slower-than-expected growth from last quarter as the main justification for the cut, in conjunction with a stable inflation landscape allowing the central bank to concentrate more on economic stimulation,” remarked Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr.
Chinabank Research stated that price pressures have stayed “generally mild and manageable.”
“Headline inflation holding steady at 2.9% in January, and core inflation even decreasing slightly, will be crucial inputs for the Monetary Board,” said Nomura Global Markets Research analyst Euben Paracuelles.
Headline inflation remained stable at 2.9% in January, within the central bank’s targeted range of 2-4%.
HSBC economist for ASEAN Aris D. Dacanay indicated that inflation is “not particularly concerning” as the latest consumer price index results were well within targets.
WEAK GROWTH
In the meantime, analysts observed that the most recent economic output figures could lead to further policy loosening.
“Having achieved its inflation target in 2024, combined with a target-consistent inflation forecast this year, the BSP is positioned to lower its policy rate following another underwhelming GDP growth estimate,” noted Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc.
Patrick M. Ella, economist at Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp., remarked that weak GDP is a “more urgent concern” for the time being, hence the BSP “must support growth on the monetary front.”
“The country’s underwhelming economic performance for both the fourth quarter and full-year 2024 further justifies a less restrictive monetary policy to assist in achieving the government’s 6-8% target for this year,” stated Chinabank.
The Philippines’ GDP rose by a slower-than-expected 5.2% in the fourth quarter, bringing the full-year 2024 growth to 5.6%, falling short of the government’s 6-6.5% goal.
“Weaker GDP figures for the second consecutive quarter and the slowest in 1.5 years, since Q2 of 2023, would further bolster local policy rate reductions,” remarked Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort.
The BSP chief mentioned earlier that the country is growing at a “slightly below capacity.” If the output gap widens further, this would necessitate additional easing, Mr. Remolona added.
“The BSP’s ongoing rate actions contribute to decreased funding costs and business expenses while laying the groundwork for investment-driven growth that can create jobs and income,” stated Mr. Asuncion.
Mr. Dacanay observed that relaxing monetary policy will “help boost demand for credit and foster growth.”
“This serves as a vital market signal to enhance business activity and expenditure following the disappointing GDP growth figures for the last quarter of 2024,” indicated Oikonomia Advisory & Research, Inc. economist Reinielle Matt Erece.
PESO
In the meantime, the peso’s recent appreciation may also empower the BSP to persist in its easing cycle.
“The recent stability of the peso could also afford the BSP more flexibility to contemplate a rate reduction,” stated Mr. Neri.
“The currency has gained strength in recent trading sessions following the US government’s choice to delay its tariffs against Canada and Mexico. Although a rate cut could apply pressure on the peso, improving market sentiment may alleviate this.”
The peso closed at P58.03 per dollar on Friday, appreciating by 15 centavos from its P58.18 close on Thursday. This marked its strongest finish in over a month since its P57.91-per-dollar close on Jan. 2.
Week over week, the peso climbed by 33.5 centavos from its P58.365 finish on Jan. 31.
“Furthermore, the BSP might also consider a higher exchange rate, provided inflation stays within guidelines. A weaker peso could also enhance the economy by increasing the purchasing power of exporters and OFW households,” Mr. Neri added.
Meanwhile, Mr. Dacanay indicated that there remains an opportunity for the BSP to narrow its interest rate spread with the US Federal Reserve.
“Currently at 125 bps, history has demonstrated that the gap between the BSP and the upper-end range of the Fed rate can be as narrow as 100 bps before inciting financial unease,” he noted.
Reuters reported that Federal Reserve officials indicated on Friday that the US job market remains robust and stressed the uncertainty surrounding how President Donald J. Trump’s policies will impact economic growth and existing elevated inflation, emphasizing their cautious approach to interest rate reductions.
The Fed maintained its policy rate unchanged last month, citing economic ambiguity.
“We believe the BSP still has the potential to implement a 25-bp cut as the resulting interest rate differential, at 100 bps, remains at a comfortable level and would likely not endanger a significant depreciation of the peso against the US dollar,” added Chinabank Research.
Conversely, Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan expressed that the BSP might choose to keep rates steady on Thursday, claiming it appears “premature” to cut rates amidst trade war concerns.
“The BSP will exercise caution in monitoring global events that could reinvigorate inflation and undermine the peso’s strength,” she remarked.
CAUTIOUS EASING
Looking ahead, analysts predict that the central bank will likely exercise caution and may implement fewer rate cuts than expected this year.
“The BSP will probably persist in its cautious communication, considering ongoing inflation risks and amplified global uncertainties,” noted Chinabank Research.
The central bank had previously cautioned that the risks to the inflation outlook remain skewed to the upside for this year and 2026.
“Throughout 2025, we envision that monetary policy easing will persist but at a more tempered pace,” indicated Ms. Tan.
Mr. Remolona had previously signaled the potential of reducing rates by a total of 50 bps this year, noting that 75 bps or 100 bps might be seen as “excessive.”
“While a rate reduction is still on the table, we anticipate that the extent of easing this year will be restricted,” affirmed Mr. Neri.
“The substantial current account deficit of the economy renders it more susceptible to external shocks, such as global trade tensions. A narrower interest rate differential could also lead to portfolio outflows as investors pursue higher returns elsewhere,” he added.
Mr. Neri predicts a total of 50 bps in rate cuts for this year.
“Preferring to front-load Mr. Remolona’s inclination for a 50-bp reduction this year with the Fed on hold would be macro-appropriate even though it may lead to a weaker peso,” Mr. Asuncion noted.
On the contrary, Mr. Ella anticipates that the central bank will initiate two rate cuts amounting to 50 bps in the first half, maintain rates through the third quarter, and then execute another 25-bp reduction in the final quarter.
