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Bitcoin’s value has prolonged its downturn, falling to depths of $105,200 today, after a tumultuous onset to November and concluding an impressive seven-year “Uptober” sequence.
After finishing October with a 4% decrease — the first negative October since 2018 — Bitcoin’s value is encountering heightened selling pressure amidst stricter financial circumstances, hesitant institutional inflows, and macroeconomic obstacles.
The recent downturn follows an early-October flash crash that plummeted Bitcoin to $104,000, erasing significant portions of its Q3 momentum. In spite of a partial rebound, BTC remains approximately 14% below its latest peak close to $125,000.
At present, the Bitcoin value is $106,234.
Bitcoin value assessment
Technical graphs indicate that Bitcoin recently probed three support lows prior to sweeping liquidity beneath them.
On the daily timeframe, BTC maintained a crucial low within a demand region, which historically has been a robust support level. This zone previously ensnared impatient sellers before a rebound, implying that BTC may once more locate short-term support here.
Focusing on the 15-minute chart, a distinct demand zone is developing where Bitcoin could respond before executing its next movement, potentially aiming for liquidity above current peaks. Traders familiar with such configurations observe that markets often prepare for shifts that leave anxious participants behind.
On-chain statistics provide additional perspective on Bitcoin’s present situation. The Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, indicating the average cost basis for recent purchasers, is around $113,000.
Historically, this threshold has functioned as a dynamic support area, laying a foundation for accumulation and subsequent upward movements.
Remaining above this line signifies that short-term participants are at breakeven or slight profit, enhancing market confidence.
The STH Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio also underscores possible upside. Multiplying the current STH Realized Price by historical MVRV thresholds suggests resistance levels between $160,000 and $200,000, in line with past cycle patterns.
Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV metrics further support this perspective, indicating decreasing returns but potential peaks around $163,000–$165,000.
Shifting MVRV frameworks, including two-year and 100-day evaluations, reveal that BTC remains in an accumulation-favorable range, capturing optimal entry points ahead of the next bullish phase.
Bitcoin at $200,000 soon?
Earlier today, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee retained optimism about Bitcoin, forecasted it could still leap to $150,000–$200,000 by the end of 2025 despite recent market upheaval.
He mentioned that the mid-October liquidation episode — the largest in crypto history, surpassing FTX — transpired just weeks ago.
Earlier today, Strategy declared they bolstered their aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy, acquiring 397 BTC for approximately $45.6 million at an average price of $114,771 per BTC.
According to a November 3, 2025 SEC Form 8-K filing, Strategy now possesses a total of 641,205 BTC, with an aggregate purchase cost of $47.49 billion and an average acquisition price of $74,057 per BTC, including fees and expenses.
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