“Key Metrics to Monitor as Bitcoin Achieves Its Peak Weekly Close”

Main insights:

• Bitcoin’s price discovery achieved its most robust weekly closure at $123,400.

• On-chain indicators and futures statistics reveal persistent bullish dominance above $122,000.

• Short-term predictions are divided between a momentum surge upward or a mean reversion decline.

Bitcoin (BTC) reached its most exceptional weekly closure ever at $123,500 on Sunday, confirming its transition into a new stage of price discovery. As it stabilized close to its all-time high (ATH) at $125,800, three fundamental on-chain and derivative indicators underlined the robustness and sustainability of the bullish trend.

Bulls dominate Bitcoin’s structural momentum close to $123,000

Bitcoin’s structural momentum remains strongly positive. Bitcoin analyst Axel Adler Jr. observed that BTC’s price was firmly positioned against the upper edge of the 21-day “Donchian” channel ($125,200). Simultaneously, the structure shift composite stays elevated at +0.73, indicating buyer supremacy and managed retracements. The ongoing contest around the $125,000 ATH could decide if the market moves higher or pauses for consolidation.

Futures flow index indicates bullish pressure

The Bitcoin futures flow index recorded at 96%, with prices significantly above its 30-day fair value of $117,500, signaling a classic “bullish mode.” This condition typically precedes a brief cooling or digestion period as overheated futures activity consolidates before further movement.

Additionally, the Profit/Loss Block score sustained a peak reading of +3, indicating that the majority of UTXOs are yielding profit, a condition that supports strong risk appetite and consistent dip-buying activity.

Moreover, the MVRV ratio for short-term holders is approaching its +1σ band near $133,000, suggesting potential resistance as profit-taking pressure increases. Keeping P/L momentum above the 90th percentile will be essential to avoid divergence and trend exhaustion.

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Short-term projections: A momentum grind or mean reversion for BTC?

Bitcoin’s short-term framework presented two distinct continuation scenarios following its record weekly closure above $123,000.

The first scenario favored a momentum-driven breakout, where “high prices remain higher.” In this scenario, Bitcoin could stabilize within a tight range between $122,000 and $124,000, establishing a high-timeframe base as volatility contracts.

This behavior typically precedes gradual trend expansion, permitting the market to continue its price discovery phase through a slow ascent toward new highs. Sustained high positioning would validate this structure as a bullish continuation rather than a distribution.

Conversely, a mean reversion scenario remains plausible. This would involve a corrective retest toward crucial moving averages on the 4-hour chart, with the 50-, 100-, and 200-period exponential moving averages (EMAs) aligning with a liquidity pocket between $118,500 and $120,000.

A pullback into this range would reset short-term leverage, rebuild demand, and maintain structural integrity as long as $118,000 is sustained as higher support.

In general, the current market equilibrium suggested consolidation within bullish strength. Whether through steady compression or a brief liquidity sweep, the broader trend bias remained upward unless momentum fractures below the mid-$118,000 zone.

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This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision involves risk, and readers should undertake their own research when making decisions.