“`html
Crypto participants who have been unable to engage with Bitcoin this year might still find another opportunity to gather assets, as a crypto expert anticipates that Bitcoin could plummet by as much as 70% in the forthcoming bear market.
Nonetheless, crypto experts are divided on the future trajectory of Bitcoin. Some believe a bear market is still a long way off, while others suggest it may arrive much sooner.
“I would estimate perhaps a 70% downturn from whichever the peak price ends up,” Cowen stated to Kyle Chasse in an interview released on Thursday, mentioning that past cycle bear markets recorded Bitcoin (BTC) reductions of 94%, 87%, and approximately 77%.
“Does it have to occur? No, but you know, historical trends would at least advise us to consider that it might.”
This would mark a significant fall from $250K Bitcoin
With certain Bitcoin proponents, such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, forecasting values as high as $250,000 by year-end, a 70% decline would reduce it to about $75,000.
Cowen remarked, “If we begin to surge in Q4 for me, it’ll just be straightforward like, okay, this time isn’t unique, I’ll simply take profits back to stables.” He noted that he might wait until mid-2026 to reinvest.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $117,010 at the time of publication, up 3.41% over the previous 30 days, as per CoinMarketCap.
Cowen indicated that market participants ought to anticipate another robust rally but not underestimate how swiftly it might peak.
“Clearly, investors are optimistic we are going to consolidate and enter that final rally into the market cycle peak,” he mentioned, adding that should be the baseline assumption.
“But if that starts to occur, just remember the peak could happen at any moment, right? …Everyone’s going to be euphoric if we begin to see an upward move,” he added.
ETH will surpass Bitcoin as the cycle concludes
In the meantime, Cowen also anticipates Ether (ETH) will “struggle against” Bitcoin for a few more weeks but ultimately excel as the cycle nears its conclusion.
“Up until the cycle wraps up, Ethereum will likely outperform from this moment until the end,” Cowen remarked.
“I foresee weakness throughout October for ETH,” he added. The ETH/BTC ratio, which evaluates Ether’s comparative strength to Bitcoin, is up 8.56% over the last 30 days, as indicated by TradingView.
Related: Altseason index reaches peak level this year: Here’s what traders believe
Some Bitcoin enthusiasts argue that Bitcoin’s price will still adhere to its usual four-year cycle, while others remain uncertain.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan stated, “I anticipate 2026 will be a positive year.” “I broadly believe we’re in for a favorable few years,” Hougan added.
Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg recently mentioned, “I believe there is over a 50% probability Bitcoin will reach the 140 to 150 range this year before we encounter another bear market next year.”
In the meantime, Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor stated in June, “Winter is not returning.”
Magazine: Meet the Ethereum and Polkadot co-founder who wasn’t featured in Time Magazine
Source link
“`
