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Bitcoin continues to linger in a narrow consolidation range following its establishment of a new all-time pinnacle above $123,000 just a week and a half ago. The existing range, from $117,000 to $120,000, indicates a slowdown in momentum as the market absorbs recent advancements and gets ready for its forthcoming significant movement. Although volatility has diminished, fundamental indicators imply that the overarching trend may still possess potential for growth.
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A crucial indicator attracting attention is the fraction of supply active over the last 180 days (% Supply Active). Historically, this metric has surged during significant macroeconomic turning points. In spring 2024, as BTC neared $70,000, % Supply Active soared to 20%. It climbed again to 18% in December 2024, when Bitcoin first surpassed the psychological barrier of $100,000. These spikes indicated the movement of previously dormant coins from storage—often viewed as preliminary signs of broader distribution phases commencing.
At present, the market is displaying only initial indications of renewed supply activity, implying that we might still be in the nascent stages of this cycle’s distribution phase. With long-term holders remaining relatively passive and Bitcoin trading at near-record levels, the groundwork could be laid for further upside if accumulation resumes and fresh capital flows into the market.
Supply Activity Indicates Preliminary Phase Of Bitcoin Macro Expansion
Leading analyst Axel Adler recently disseminated vital insights suggesting a potential early stage in Bitcoin’s ongoing macro cycle. As per Adler, supply activity began to increase in June 2025 as BTC crossed the $100,000 threshold. Over the past month, this metric has risen from negative levels to +2.4%, signaling the commencement of a transformation in holder behavior. While the increment validates early indications of distribution, it remains modest when compared to prior cycle peaks.
Historically, significant bull markets witness this 30-day % Supply Active increasing dramatically. Adler notes that the current progression lags behind previous peaks—like those observed when BTC hit $70,000 in spring 2024 or when it surpassed $100,000 in December 2024—implying that the market still has ample room before transitioning into a heightened distribution phase. This delayed rise in activity suggests that most long-term holders remain steadfast and are not yet inclined to liquidate their coins.
As Bitcoin consolidates around the $120,000 mark, this increasing yet tempered activity signifies a robust cycle structure. Adler anticipates that if BTC continues to ascend and maintain levels above $120,000, the 30-day % Supply Active will likely shift into the 8–10% range. Ultimately, it could revisit the 18–20% zone noted at earlier distribution peaks.
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