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Bitcoin is experiencing pressure as optimistic sentiment starts to diminish and sellers take charge. After weeks of robustness, BTC is now probing the critical $92,000–$93,000 support range, making an effort to establish this level as a foundation for further progress. However, should selling pressure continue to escalate, a fall below this area could initiate a more pronounced correction and indicate a weakening trend.
Leading analyst Axel Adler provided insights that underscore a significant risk factor: during the ongoing bull phase, short-term holders typically realize profits when their Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) surpasses 40%. Historically, this threshold signifies when traders begin to unload their positions, leading to an increase in spot market supply and generating downward pressure on prices. With Bitcoin recently exhibiting signs of stagnation near $98,000 and momentum softening, traders are becoming more apprehensive.
While the structure remains robust for now, BTC must maintain the $92K area to prevent a shift of key support into resistance. A definitive bounce from this point could rejuvenate the bullish narrative, but failing to hold could further tilt sentiment toward bearish. As market participants observe closely, Bitcoin is up against one of its most significant challenges in this cycle. The next movement could set the trend for the weeks ahead.
Bitcoin Approaches Critical Range: Buyers Aim for $100K Breakout
Bitcoin is currently positioned within an essential price range, where a dip below $90,000 might prompt a shift in momentum toward the downside, while a breakout above $100,000 could unleash a vigorous new phase of the bull cycle. After enduring months of selling pressure from its peak, BTC is demonstrating renewed vigor and striving to affirm a more extensive bullish setup for the whole market. The recent surge past $92K constituted a vital technical milestone, but now bulls must safeguard that level and cultivate momentum toward a persistent breakout.
Market conditions, nonetheless, remain turbulent. The prevailing environment is shaped by macroeconomic unpredictability and escalating geopolitical strains, generating erratic fluctuations across both crypto and conventional markets. Still, Bitcoin’s price framework implies that bulls are currently gaining the upper hand.
Adler provided insights regarding the involvement of short-term holders (1–3 months), who are often the most assertive participants in the market. This segment encompasses professional speculators, many of whom execute Bitcoin trades via ETF platforms. Historically, during this bull phase, when their Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) exceeds 40%, they tend to take profits, generating sell pressure. Currently, NUPL rests at just 8%, with its 30-day SMA still in the negative at -2%, indicating that short-term holders are not yet selling in significant volumes.
This low NUPL measurement implies minimal immediate selling threat, further bolstering the bullish argument. As long as NUPL remains subdued, Bitcoin could have space to keep climbing before profit-taking commences. The upcoming days will be crucial—maintaining above $90K and propelling toward $100K could pave the way for a breakout, whereas failing to do so might herald renewed weakness. All attention is focused on Bitcoin as it sits at a pivotal moment in this cycle.
Price Action Overview: Resilient Yet Confronting Resistance
Bitcoin is presently trading around $94,158 after a slight retreat from the recent local peak near $97,000. The daily chart illustrates that BTC remains well above both the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $90,542 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $86,381, indicating that the broader trend holds bullish.
After surpassing the critical $90K level in April, Bitcoin surged significantly but is now consolidating just beneath the psychological $100K resistance. Volume has begun to diminish, signaling short-term uncertainty as bulls and bears contend for dominance. A sustained hold above $92K would bolster the bullish narrative, potentially setting the stage for a renewed push toward $100K and the prior cycle peak of $103,600.
However, a drop below $92K could indicate a loss of momentum and elevate the chances of retesting the 200-day SMA near $90K. This level now acts as essential support and will be closely monitored by traders.
Overall, Bitcoin remains structurally sound, but the forthcoming daily candles will be crucial. A decisive movement above $97K could ignite the next upward trend, while a dip below $90K would jeopardize the trend and shift it toward short-term bearish.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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