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The research firm and exchange-traded-product provider 21Shares contends that Dogecoin has developed into “a wise inclusion for your portfolio,” forecasting a bullish market price target of $1.42 per coin if positive momentum persists.
In a post shared on X on April 30, the company informed its audience that “Dogecoin is no longer just a meme—it may be a shrewd addition to your portfolio.” Referencing a research note, 21Shares provided insights from stress-tested portfolio simulations where a typical 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds is first “augmented with 3% Bitcoin” and subsequently enhanced with a “modest 1% DOGE allocation.”
The researchers indicated that “the baseline yielded 7.25% annually, while DOGE-enhanced portfolios attained returns as high as 8.95%. Sharpe ratios improved in nearly all evaluations,” with the lowest peak-to-trough drawdown only “increasing by a few percentage points.”
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The analysis attributes the added performance to Dogecoin’s long-lasting track record of surpassing most major crypto-assets while sustaining “a low correlation to both crypto and conventional assets.” Despite this, the writers emphasize the necessity of disciplined rebalancing.
“Without it, returns might stagnate while risks silently accumulate,” they caution, noting that monthly or weekly rebalancing offers the best balance between upside potential and volatility management, especially “during times of greater market strain, as recently witnessed.”
Three Scenarios For Dogecoin
To set expectations for the upcoming cycle, 21Shares outlines three scenarios:
In the bearish outlook, Dogecoin’s post-election surge may have “preempted its true cycle capacity.” If the token only compounds at 10% annually from its 2021 peak of $0.73, it would “hover around $0.38 by 2025,” a doubling from the current $0.18 but missing the opportunity to achieve a new all-time high within a full market cycle for the first time.
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The neutral scenario presumes the entire crypto-asset market escalates to $5 trillion with DOGE’s market share declining from 4% to 3%. Based on those figures, Dogecoin would approximate a worth of $150 billion and trade “close to $1 per coin,” representing around a 5.5-fold increase from current valuations while “maintaining its position as the top memecoin” amidst increased competition.
The optimistic scenario multiplies the token’s compounding growth from the pre-2021 low of $0.007 to the current-cycle low of $0.0585, a rate calculated at 189% per year. “Should DOGE replicate this explosive growth,” the report concludes, “DOGE would reach around $1.42.”
This outcome would necessitate a revival of “memecoin enthusiasm,” tangible real-world applications, and crucially, deeper integration with major consumer platforms like Elon Musk’s X. In that climate, the authors opine that a robust return of retail optimism “could re-establish DOGE as the standout asset of the cycle, potentially even doubling its all-time high.”
21Shares concludes on a realistic note: “With the appropriate structure, a 1% allocation to Dogecoin isn’t imprudent—it’s beneficial.”
At the time of writing, DOGE was valued at $0.175.
Featured image generated with DALL.E, chart sourced from TradingView.com
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