“Bitcoin Poised for a Surge as Fed Rate Cut Probabilities Soar to 60%”

Main points:

• Bitcoin maintains $95,000 as Federal Reserve rate cut probabilities rise to 60% for June 18 amid a downturn in the US economy.

• Surpassing $95,000 could drive BTC prices toward $100,000, while falling beneath $93,000 might reintroduce the $84,000 level.

• Important Bitcoin thresholds to monitor remain near the long-term holders’ cost basis.

Bitcoin (BTC) is once again striving to exceed $95,000 on May 1 as markets speculate that the US Federal Reserve might implement a rate cut sooner than anticipated.

Fed rate cut will elevate BTC prices

Insights from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicated that Bitcoin inched upward hours after declining below $93,000 in response to US GDP data that signaled a contracting economy.

A declining economy is likely to encourage the Fed to reduce rates to stimulate economic activity sooner rather than later. This diminishes yields on conventional assets such as bonds, guiding investors towards Bitcoin and higher-risk assets.

The chances of a Fed interest rate reduction during the June 18 FOMC gathering have escalated over the past week, from 57% on April 30 to 60% on May 1.

Expectations for a rate cut have historically acted as a bullish stimulus for risk-on assets and Bitcoin. For instance, Bitcoin surged over 20% ahead of the previous Fed rate cut on December 18, 2024.

“Bitcoin rebounds towards $95K, recovering from pessimistic US GDP figures,” stated anonymous Bitcoin analyst BTCmoonmath in a May 1 post on X, further adding:

“Traders foresee future easing and rate reductions from the Federal Reserve, despite an economic contraction and weak consumer confidence.”

The attention now turns to how the May 2 employment report, which reveals the number of jobs added to the US economy in April, will influence the crypto market and subsequently, Bitcoin prices.

Related: Bitcoin ‘aging’ chart forecasts sixfold BTC price increase above $350K

What lies ahead for Bitcoin prices?

At present, $95,000 serves as a crucial threshold for traders, with many analysts suggesting that a sustained breach through the resistance area beyond this point paves the way for a rapid upward movement.

“The price has recently surpassed both key technical indicators and is currently making an effort to stabilize within this area,” Glassnode indicated in its latest Week Onchain report.

The market intelligence firm mentioned the 111-day simple moving average (SMA) at $91,300 and the short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $93,200. Bitcoin has reclaimed these levels during the recent upward trajectory, indicating significant strength behind the movement.

“These are levels that need to be breached and maintained for further price advancement, as a rejection at these thresholds would push the price back into bearish territory, placing several investors into a situation of substantial unrealized loss.”

“Bitcoin is poised to surge past $96,000,” noted prominent analyst AlphaBTC mentioned in his latest analysis on X.

According to the analyst, a decisive breach above $95,000 might see BTC emerge from consolidation, with the next logical move being towards the $100,000 psychological level.

“This is the movement I would like to witness if Bitcoin can maintain momentum today. A robust push into the low 100Ks.”

In contrast, the analyst noted that a decline beneath the April 30 lows at $93,000 might lead BTC/USD to sink further towards the $84,000 and $88,000 range as illustrated in the preceding chart.

Another crypto analyst, Daan Crypto Trades, remarked that if prices consolidate without rejection and continues to ascend, then this could set BTC up for a movement higher towards the $100K vicinity, as he discussed with his followers on X.

This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and trading decision involves risk, and readers should perform their own research prior to making a choice.