ARK Invest has notably updated its long-term forecast for Bitcoin, now anticipating a bullish price target of around $2.4 million by the year 2030. The document presents an extensive modeling framework based on Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM) opportunities, adoption patterns, and predictions regarding supply dynamics.
The revised target indicates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 72% from December 31, 2024, to December 31, 2030. In contrast, ARK’s base and bearish estimates are $1.2 million (CAGR ~53%) and $500,000 (CAGR ~32%), respectively.
“Institutional investment plays a pivotal role in our bullish scenario,” the report highlights, underscoring an expected penetration rate of 6.5% of the $200 trillion global market portfolio excluding gold by 2030. According to ARK, this allocation is nearly double the current investment in gold.
Known by certain observers as “digital gold,” Bitcoin is gradually acknowledged for its potential as a “more agile, more transparent store of value”, as stated in the report. The digital gold aspect alone is projected to account for over one-third of the bullish valuation, assuming Bitcoin seizes 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap.
Demand from emerging markets is another significant element. “We believe this bitcoin application holds the highest potential for capital accumulation,” ARK stated, pointing out the asset’s capability to safeguard wealth from inflation and currency devaluation in developing regions. This segment could represent 13.5% of the $2.4 million valuation, assuming a 6% TAM penetration in emerging market monetary bases.
Additional contributions arise from increased adoption by national treasuries, corporate cash reserves, and a thriving on-chain financial services ecosystem. Notably, even conservative estimates for on-chain services indicate a 60% CAGR, building on advancements like Layer 2 networks and WBTC.
In a supplementary evaluation, ARK also utilized these assumptions regarding Bitcoin’s “active” supply, a method that considers long-held or lost coins. With a liveliness-adjusted supply basis, the bullish price target escalates from the previous $1.5 million to the newly set $2.4 million.
ARK concludes, “The scarcity of Bitcoin and the lost supply are not taken into account in the majority of valuation models currently available,” indicating additional upside potential beyond the already ambitious prediction.
You can access the complete report here.
