Bitcoin is becoming detached from the US equity market and is increasingly behaving like precious metals, indicating Bitcoin’s enhanced function as a refuge asset amidst global economic turmoil.
The value of Bitcoin (BTC) illustrates its evolving sophistication as a worldwide asset, transitioning from being “less Nasdaq — more gold” in the last fortnight, per Alex Svanevik, the co-founder and CEO of the Nansen crypto analytics platform.
Over the fortnight concluding April 22, Bitcoin witnessed a 12% rebound, despite the escalating tariff disputes among the globe’s largest trading powers. As of April 9, the US amplified reciprocal tariffs on China to 125%, whereas China elevated import tariffs from 84% to 125%, effective April 12.
During the trade conflict, Bitcoin exhibited “unexpected stability” in contrast to altcoins and indexes such as the S&P 500, yet it still faces susceptibility to concerns regarding economic downturn, Svanevik remarked to Cointelegraph, adding:
“We anticipate gold to remain more steadfast, although gold assets could be sold off if investors panic and seek to cover margin calls. This was observable one to two days during the peak of the trade conflict earlier this month.”
Nonetheless, Bitcoin will continue to gain from regulatory advancements and the US Bitcoin Reserve-related updates, especially with additional news on how the “Treasury is exploring methods to convert reserves into BTC,” Svanevik further noted.
Related: Bitcoin surge beyond $100K may follow US Treasury buybacks — Arthur Hayes
Initially, the US Bitcoin reserve will include BTC confiscated in government criminal proceedings, with President Donald Trump’s executive order directing the government to create “budget-neutral strategies” to acquire more Bitcoin.
LATEST: Executive Director of Digital Assets Bo Hines stated that the US government might purchase Bitcoin using tariff revenues. pic.twitter.com/Gfc2HiEJoL
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) April 15, 2025
The US is exploring “numerous innovative options” to finance its Bitcoin investments, including utilizing tariff revenues and reassessing the Treasury’s gold certificates, thereby generating a paper surplus to support the BTC reserve without liquidating gold, Bo Hines from the Presidential Council of Advisors for Digital Assets mentioned in an April 14 interview.
Related: Bitcoin rises 33% since 2024 halving as institutions accelerate the cycle
US recession likelihood climbs to 60%, according to JPMorgan
Despite Bitcoin’s strength against tariff anxieties, a looming US recession could diminish investor interest in risk assets.
The likelihood of a US recession in 2025 has escalated from 40% to 60%, as noted in an April 15 research report from JPMorgan, which stated:
“The recent unwinding of the Liberation Day tariffs alleviates the shock to the global trading framework, but the ongoing universal 10% tariff remains a significant threat to growth and the 145% tariff on China sustains the probability of a recession at 60%.”
JPMorgan anticipates the Fed will “begin to ease in September, followed by further reductions at every meeting thereafter until January 2026 — achieving a 3% policy rate by June 2026,” the report added.
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