Recently, Project Eleven (a quantum computing research team) declared a reward of 1 bitcoin for the first group capable of completing a task to demonstrate breaking an ECC (elliptic curve cryptography) key utilizing Shor’s algorithm on a quantum computer.
The cutoff for this challenge is April 5th, 2026, indicating that in order to qualify for the prize, a team must illustrate the breaking of a key pair before that date.
This is frankly a thoroughly absurd and meaningless incentive for several reasons, the first being the deadline of just under a year from now. Even highly optimistic assessments regarding the advancements in quantum computing estimate the timeline for nearly accomplishing such a target to be closer to 5-10 years. Anticipating a viable proof of concept demonstration that genuinely breaks a keypair within a single year is rather laughable at face value, even if you consider quantum computing a tangible threat in the near term.
Another point is the aspect of economic motivations. A single bitcoin is presently valued at around $80,000. That is frankly not a substantial amount of money in the grand context. Particularly when considering the implementation of an avant-garde technology like quantum computing that can execute an entire category of computations exponentially faster than traditional computers. Picture how much more significant endeavors could be achieved with an operational quantum computer.
You could intercept internet communications regardless of TLS, disrupting secure connections to banks, equity brokerages, and private corporate networks that are not utilizing post-quantum cryptography. You could compromise every private messaging application on the globe, you could decrypt any PGP encrypted correspondence sent through email for which you possessed the public key. You could dismantle the entire DNS system’s certificate authority hierarchy, enabling you to impersonate any server in the world that a user attempts to access.
All of these capabilities hold immeasurable importance far beyond just a mere $84,000. Why on Earth would someone with a functioning quantum computer openly reveal that information to claim a single bitcoin when they could exploit all these other potentials they would have access to?
Alright, let’s set aside all of those potentials and assume the entire world miraculously shifts to post-quantum cryptography excluding Bitcoin. It still doesn’t add up to attempt to publicly seize this prize if you possess a viable quantum computer.
Let’s posit you have a barely functional quantum computer, that it takes a substantial amount of time to crack a single key. How many bare public keys exist securing 50 BTC outputs from the first mining epoch? THOUSANDS of them. Why on Earth would you break one, and then publicly announce it to secure a single bitcoin? You would simply aim to decipher as many of those early coinbase awards as possible before individuals caught on.
Ultimately, the timeline itself is just ridiculous. Quantum computers today are not even capable of factoring prime numbers that individuals can accomplish in their minds. In just one year, the technology is expected to leap from that to cracking Bitcoin keys? That’s preposterous.
So what is the actual purpose of this prize except for some publicity stunt? It’s entirely meaningless as a serious incentive to function as an early warning system for us, regardless of how concerned or unconcerned you may be about the timelines of quantum computers as a potential threat.
This bounty is a farce.
This article is a Take. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
