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Experienced crypto analyst Bob Loukas has diminished his Bitcoin stake, cautioning his audience that although the bullish trend remains, the likelihood that Bitcoin has reached its zenith for this four-year period has substantially grown. In a recent update released April 8th, Loukas elaborated on the reasoning behind liquidating one-third of his model portfolio at $79,500, pointing to both technical decline and a deteriorating macroeconomic climate.
“I still believe we have the potential to advance later this year or even early next year to a peak within the four-year phase,” Loukas remarked. Nevertheless, he underscored that the recent price movements and structural failures in the charts required a more prudent stance. “I’m not asserting this is the peak in the cycle,” he clarified, “but I’m suggesting that the chances of it being a peak have heightened… shifting from a low-risk scenario to something closer to a third—you know, a 33% probability.”
Bitcoin Bull Under Scrutiny
The portfolio adjustment, which reduces the model’s Bitcoin holdings to 27 BTC with the remaining assets in cash, does not predict an imminent downturn but serves as a safeguard against escalating downside risks. Loukas emphasized that his choice was not reactive or hasty but rather aligned with a long-established strategy shaped by the cyclical pattern of Bitcoin’s price history. He referenced his February video where he warned that, should the next weekly cycle fail to maintain support and breach recent lows, it would indicate more significant issues. “During the third year of a bull market, witnessing substantial lows like the one in February… and then having them breached is uncommon.”
Connected Reading
Loukas pointed out a series of trendline breaches and crucial support breakdowns on the weekly and monthly charts. While he acknowledged that technical breaks are not definitive indicators of cycle peaks, he contended they lend support to the notion that the market may be shifting into the declining segment of the four-year cycle. “We are currently… 29 months into the cycle,” he stated, “thus it’s significant enough where I must take this a bit more seriously.”
Despite the analyst maintaining a long-term bullish outlook—emphasizing solid price trends, ETF inflows, and institutional acceptance—he cautioned that macroeconomic challenges could hasten short-term declines. “There’s a significant macro issue at play here with tariffs, trade, and the economy,” Loukas pointed out. “We haven’t experienced such an impact or disruption to global trade in decades… which could potentially… lead to a full-scale global recession.”
In such circumstances, the notion that Bitcoin could entirely dissociate from risk assets seems, in Loukas’ perspective, unrealistic. “With ETFs being relatively new, and Saylor and others involved—the institutional or TradFi participation in Bitcoin—leads me to conclude that a complete decoupling… is likely impractical.”
The analyst presented a potential bearish scenario where Bitcoin could drop to the $52,000 mark—a near 50% retracement from its January peaks. While emphasizing that this is not a prediction but a contingency, Loukas claimed such a movement could provide a notable re-entry opportunity. “If by chance Bitcoin approaches the $54,000 range over the next month to three months, I would consider that a 50% retracement is sufficient… where I might want to redeploy some risk.”
Connected Reading
He added that any considerable rally followed by a lower low would, in his viewpoint, affirm a four-year cycle peak. “A large upward movement followed by a subsequent downturn… would essentially serve as the final nail in the coffin.”
Yet, Loukas has not dismissed the possibility of achieving higher peaks later this year. He raised the idea of an unusual “super right-translated cycle,” where Bitcoin peaks well beyond the conventional month-35 interval—potentially around month 41 or 42—followed by a sharp but short-lived correction before transitioning into the next four-year cycle. This more speculative hypothesis would imply a complex double or even triple-pump structure, reminiscent of the patterns observed in the 2013 and 2021 cycles.
Currently, the model portfolio remains two-thirds invested in Bitcoin, and Loukas reiterated that he would prefer a bullish outcome even at the expense of reduced exposure. “I’d much rather ride two-thirds of a position to $150K, $200K, or even higher, than to say, ‘Well, Bitcoin’s dropping back to $48K or lower.’”
Ultimately, Loukas framed the adjustment not as bearish capitulation but as sensible risk management. “I am fundamentally an allocator of risk and capital… and as one ventures deeper into the cycle, the greater the heights, the risk/reward ratio, clearly, shifts.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $77,743.

Featured image generated with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com