HEADLINE INFLATION is anticipated to be confined within a range of 1.7% to 2.5% in March, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Monday.
If actualized, the BSP’s prediction would reflect a deceleration from the 3.7% inflation figure recorded in March 2024.
At the higher end of the BSP estimate, inflation is likely to have increased from 2.1% in February.
The lower end of the estimate suggests inflation may have eased below 2% for the first time since the 1.9% figure in September 2024. This could also signify the slowest inflation since 1.6% in May 2020.
A BusinessWorld survey of 18 analysts conducted last week produced a median prediction of 2% for the March consumer price index.
March inflation statistics are set to be released on April 4.
“Inflationary pressures for the month arise from elevated electricity costs and rising prices for seafood and meat,” stated the BSP in a release.
In March, Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) increased the overall rate by P0.2639 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to P12.2901 per kWh from P12.0262 per kWh in February.
According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, the cost of a kilo of round scad (galunggong) averaged P235.26 in early March, slightly above the P226.43 noted in the prior month. The price of fresh pork belly (liempo) surged to P384.08 per kilo in early March from P375.02 a month prior.
Nonetheless, the BSP observed a reduction in rice and vegetable prices in March.
“Nevertheless, these are projected to be counterbalanced by lower costs of rice, fruits, and vegetables, due to favorable domestic supply conditions as well as the appreciation of the peso,” it added.
Rice prices have been declining due to government measures and decreased global prices. In February, rice inflation dropped to 4.9%, contrasting with the 2.3% decline in January.
The government had reduced tariffs on rice imports to 15% beginning July 2024. The Department of Agriculture (DA) declared a food security emergency concerning rice, which enabled the National Food Authority to distribute buffer stocks at subsidized rates.
Starting March 1, the DA also further reduced the maximum suggested retail price for 5% broken imported rice to P49 per kilo from the previous P52 per kilo. The MRSP was additionally lowered to P45 per kilo starting March 31.
“Looking ahead, the Monetary Board will maintain a cautious approach to ensure price stability that supports balanced and sustainable economic growth and employment,” stated the BSP.
The BSP’s baseline forecasts for inflation are at 3.5% for 2025 to 2026. Considering various risks, inflation might reach 3.7% in 2026.
Last month, the BSP decided to hold its key rate steady at 5.75% amidst global trade uncertainties.
Nonetheless, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has indicated that they are still in an easing phase, suggesting the potential for a 25-basis-point reduction at the Monetary Board’s policy-setting meeting on April 10. — A.R.A. Inosante
