Worries regarding a worldwide trade conflict persist in affecting both conventional and cryptocurrency markets as investors prepare for a potential tariff declaration from US President Donald Trump on April 2 — a decision that might influence Bitcoin’s price direction for the month.
Trump initially declared import tariffs on Chinese merchandise on Jan. 20, coinciding with his swearing-in as president.
Fears of global tariffs have resulted in increased inflation apprehensions, restricting the willingness to engage in risk assets among investors. Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 18%, while the S&P 500 (SPX) index has decreased by over 7% in the two months following the original tariff announcement, as per TradingView data, TradingView reports.
“Looking ahead, April 2 is attracting increased focus as a possible ignition point for new US tariff announcements,” Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at the digital asset investment platform Nexo, commented to Cointelegraph.
S&P 500, BTC/USD, daily chart. Source: TradingView
Investor sentiment experienced another setback on March 29 after Trump urged his senior advisors to adopt a more militant approach regarding import tariffs, which could be interpreted as a potential escalation in the trade conflict, as reported by the Washington Post citing four unnamed sources familiar with the issue.
The announcement on April 2 is anticipated to outline mutual trade tariffs aimed at key US trading partners. The policies aim to mitigate the country’s projected $1.2 trillion goods trade deficit while enhancing domestic production.
Related: Bitcoin ‘more likely’ to reach $110K prior to $76.5K — Arthur Hayes
Bitcoin ETFs, large holders continue accumulating
In spite of increasing uncertainty, significant Bitcoin holders — referred to as “whales,” possessing between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC — have kept accumulating.
The number of addresses in this category has remained constant since the onset of 2025, escalating from 1,956 addresses on Jan. 1 to over 1,990 addresses on March 27 — still below the previous cycle’s height of 2,370 addresses noted in February 2024, Glassnode statistics indicate.
Whale address count. Source: Glassnode
“Risk tolerance remains subdued amid tariff threats from President Trump and persistent macroeconomic ambiguity,” according to Iliya Kalchev, a dispatch analyst at Nexo, who informed Cointelegraph:
“Nevertheless, BTC accumulation by whales along with a 10-day streak of ETF inflows suggests stable institutional demand. However, aggressive surprises — stemming from inflation or trade — may maintain a range-bound market for crypto into April.”
Related: $1T stablecoin supply could fuel the next crypto rally — CoinFund’s Pakman
The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw their 10-day accumulation streak cease on March 28 when Fidelity’s ETF reported outflows exceeding $93 million, while other ETF issuers noted no inflows or outflows, Farside Investors data reveals.
Bitcoin ETF Flows. Source: Farside Investors
Despite immediate volatility apprehensions, analysts have remained hopeful about Bitcoin’s price trajectory for late 2025, with price forecasts varying from $160,000 to over $180,000.
