The chief cryptocurrency researcher at 10x Research is not dismissing the possibility of Bitcoin emulating its price behavior from 2024, when it spent a significant portion of the year stabilizing after reaching record highs early in the year.
“Quite possible,” Markus Thielen remarked to Cointelegraph when queried about the likelihood of Bitcoin (BTC) mirroring a similar market trend as in 2024, where it attained a historical peak of $73,679 in March before entering a consolidation phase, fluctuating within a range of approximately $20,000 until Donald Trump was chosen as president of the US in November.
Current Bitcoin chart indicates “market uncertainty”
Thielen shared that he had this perspective even two months ago, around the time Bitcoin reached its latest all-time high of $109,000 on the day of Trump’s inauguration.
In his most recent market analysis dated March 15, he mentioned that Bitcoin’s existing chart resembles a “High and Tight Flag,” which, although typically a bullish continuation formation, reveals signs of fragility.
Bitcoin’s price chart is creating a High, Tight Flag Pattern. Source: 10x Research
“The presence of two flags instead of a single, clear pattern diminishes this arrangement,” Thielen stated.
“Consequently, the pattern currently indicates market uncertainty rather than a clear bullish consolidation,” he elaborated.
In parallel, he noted that the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market exhibits no indicators of a “buy-the-dip” mentality.
“Minimal motivation” to capitalize on Bitcoin’s recent price drop
“This aligns with our belief that the majority of ETF inflows originated from arbitrage-driven hedge funds. Given the consistently low funding rates, there’s minimal motivation or readiness to deploy further capital in response to the recent price decline,” Thielen remarked.
Since early March, when Bitcoin dipped below $90,000, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have experienced total outflows of roughly $1.66 billion, according to data from Farside.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $84,290, according to CoinMarketCap. This marks a 23% reduction from its $109,000 all-time high in January.
Bitcoin has declined by 12.86% over the past month. Source: CoinMarketCap
Thielen is uncertain if Bitcoin’s upward trend will recommence shortly. “Thus, it may be wise to close short positions at this moment, although there is scant evidence to back a robust price recovery,” Thielen stated.
Related: Bitcoin panic selling costs new investors $100M in 6 weeks — Research
Ever since Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on February 28 — the first occurrence since November — amid escalating macroeconomic concern regarding US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, numerous crypto analysts have forecasted additional decline for the asset.
On March 10, BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer Arthur Hayes stated, “it appears that Bitcoin will retest $78,000.” “Should it fail, $75,000 is the next target,” he continued.
Meanwhile, Iliya Kalchev, a dispatch analyst at digital asset investment platform Nexo, informed Cointelegraph on March 11 that the lower $70,000 range could “offer a basis for a more stable recovery.”
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