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The Bitcoin value dipped to new six-month lows on Friday, decisively falling beneath the psychological $100,000 threshold and exacerbating a sell-off that has eradicated nearly a quarter of its worth in just over a month.
By midday, the bitcoin value was fluctuating between $94,000 and $97,000, marking its weakest position since early May and a significant decline from October’s $126,296 all-time high, as per Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.
At the moment of writing, the bitcoin value stands at $94,850 but has rebounded from levels around $94,000.
This decline concludes a tumultuous week in global markets, where risk-sensitive assets, from technology giants to crypto shares, have plummeted amidst dwindling expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
Only two weeks ago, traders were anticipating a near-guaranteed 97% likelihood of easing. Today, that likelihood has dropped to approximately 50%, prompting deleveraging across both equities and digital assets.
What is causing the decline in Bitcoin value?
The macroeconomic pressures are just part of the narrative. The Bitcoin value is also contending with internal market factors that have magnified the downturn. As per new data from CryptoQuant, long-term holders have liquidated an estimated 815,000 BTC over the last 30 days— the largest exodus of this kind since early 2024.
Spot demand has diminished at the least opportune moment, and U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced hundreds of millions in daily outflows, draining liquidity while escalating downside pressure.
The upheaval extends beyond crypto. Risk-sensitive equities—including Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir, Coinbase, and Bitcoin miners—were severely impacted in this week’s sessions as investors abandoned speculative assets.
Heightened worries regarding an AI bubble, paired with uncertainty surrounding postponed U.S. economic data following the 43-day government shutdown, have propelled the VIX to its highest level since mid-October.
Institutional purchasing has decreased below the daily supply produced by miners, contributing consistent sell pressure during a period when liquidity is tightening.
Bitcoin value is balancing at precarious levels
Bitcoin value is currently floating near its closely monitored 365-day moving average around the $100,000 mark, a threshold analysts suggest could determine whether the current retrenchment morphs into a sharper correction, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
Researchers at Bitfinex mentioned to Bitcoin Magazine that the decline from October’s peak is aligning closely with typical mid-cycle pullbacks, corresponding with the roughly 22% dips observed throughout the 2023–2025 bull market.
Despite the drop below a bitcoin value of $100,000, they estimate that about 72% of all circulating bitcoin remains profitable — indicating that long-term holders are still benefiting even as sentiment deteriorates.
Other analysts perceive indications that the market might be approaching a bottom. JPMorgan estimates bitcoin’s current production cost — elevated by rising network difficulty — hovers around $94,000, a level that has historically served as a strong downward anchor.
With the price now nearing that benchmark, the bank contends that bitcoin’s price-to-cost ratio is returning to historical lows and maintains an optimistic 6–12 month forecast aiming around $170,000.
Nevertheless, the factors influencing this correction are far broader than retail traders. Whales, institutions, and leveraged market structures now dictate most significant moves. Singular transfers from wallets containing thousands of BTC can influence sentiment across exchanges.
But the recent wave of whale divestment is not indicative of panic but rather typical behavior seen late in a cycle, according to Glassnode.
Glassnode states long-term holders are continually realizing profits, with monthly spending increasing from 12,000 BTC per day in July to about 26,000 — consistent with standard bull-market distribution rather than an “OG whale exodus.”
The broader context isn’t aiding. The U.S. government has resumed after a historic 43-day shutdown, the longest in American history, following President Trump’s late-Wednesday approval of a temporary funding measure.
Under this legislation, federal agencies are funded only until Jan. 30, resulting in ongoing uncertainty over markets even as operations gradually begin to resume.
At the time of reporting, the bitcoin value is trading at $95,670, hovering near production-cost levels and testing crucial technical support.
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