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The value of Bitcoin has encountered challenges in retaining stability above $102,000 recently, with data indicating this is due to a noticeable discord between selling pressure and new demand.
On-chain information from CryptoQuant shows that although long-term holders have been actively securing profits, the market is displaying limited ability to absorb their sell-offs. This contrasts with prior phases of the bull cycle, where rising demand was capable of offsetting increased activity from long-term holders.
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Increased Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Reflects Previous Bull Cycles
Data from on-chain analytics service CryptoQuant, which was first shared by Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, illustrates an intriguing shift in dynamics among Bitcoin holder activities that could influence the cryptocurrency’s forthcoming direction.
Julio Moreno indicated that long-term holder (LTH) selling is a customary trend in bull markets as investors realize profits when Bitcoin approaches or exceeds all-time highs. The CryptoQuant data reveals that the 30-day total of LTH expenditures, depicted by the purple line in the chart below, has been rising since early October.
This pattern follows previous bullish rally intervals, such as those observed in early and late 2024, when profit-taking coincided with increased demand, allowing Bitcoin to achieve new record values.
The chart accompanying Moreno’s post displays green sections representing times of positive apparent demand growth and red sections indicating a decline. Between January and March 2024 and between November and December 2024, LTH sell-offs occurred as demand expanded.
Bitcoin Long-term Holder Expenditures
However, since October 2025, this trend has changed. Despite increasing LTH selling, demand has entered a negative zone, indicating that the market’s capacity to absorb this selling pressure has diminished. This has corresponded with Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain its level above $102,000, suggesting that price growth might be losing traction.
Prolonged Weak Demand Could Postpone Next Rally
Moreno acknowledged that the vital factor to monitor isn’t solely the quantity of long-term holder sell-offs, but whether demand growth can keep up.
When demand is robust, the influx of supply from long-term holders typically encourages healthy consolidation before another price increase. Conversely, when demand lags, the outcome often results in prolonged corrections or sideways movements.
A significant portion of that demand now originates from Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have experienced a marked slowdown in inflows. Data from SosoValue indicates that US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs concluded last week with net outflows of $558.44 million on Friday, November 7, one of the largest single-day withdrawals in weeks.
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Unless Bitcoin’s evident demand begins to recover in the following weeks and LTH sell-offs continue, this may keep exerting pressure on price action and delay the next phase of Bitcoin’s rally. In this scenario, we might observe Bitcoin continuing to consolidate between $101,000 and $103,000 for the remainder of November.
At the moment of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $101,655, down by 0.6% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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