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The cryptocurrency sector is presently experiencing notable bearish pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC) finding it challenging to regain previously essential support levels.
Recent statistics from CoinGecko reveals that Bitcoin has dipped nearly 6% over the last week, a decline that has affected other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL), all of which have encountered double-digit losses during the same timeframe.
Galaxy Digital Adjusts Bitcoin Price Projection
This decline contrasts sharply with the optimistic sentiment noted earlier in October, when Bitcoin soared to set its latest record high just above the $126,000 threshold, driven by a wave of margin purchases.
Nevertheless, the excitement was fleeting, as approximately $20 billion in leveraged positions throughout the crypto sector were suddenly liquidated just days later on October 10, exacerbating the prevailing lack of confidence among investors.
Michael Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital recently modified its year-end Bitcoin price projection down to $120,000, a considerable reduction from the earlier estimate of $185,000, attributing this modification to the “significant leverage wipeout.”
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Market analysis firm CryptoQuant has indicated that Bitcoin’s fall below its 365-day moving average around $102,000 could indicate a deeper downturn. This moving average has historically functioned as a vital support level during this bull market, and its failure to maintain could lead to a more significant correction in Bitcoin’s value.
In their assessment, CryptoQuant specialists detailed the criteria necessary for Bitcoin to alter its current path and potentially achieve new all-time highs. They noted that Bitcoin initiated a global risk-off trend, testing the vital $100,000 support level.
This decline was influenced by a stronger dollar and ongoing uncertainties regarding Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, which have dampened broader risk appetites across various asset classes.
Interestingly, there have been four consecutive sessions of around $1.3 billion in net outflows from US spot BTC ETFs, reversing what had been one of the most robust tailwinds for the market in 2025.
This decreased demand in the spot market has coincided with enforced deleveraging, leading to over $1 billion in long liquidations at recent lows, which temporarily breached intraday support before dip buyers intervened.
Stabilization Of ETF Flows Essential
The options market has further escalated volatility, as dealers remain net short gamma around the $100,000 strike, resulting in heightened hedging activities near this crucial level.
The $100,000 threshold now serves as a psychological barrier, and any stabilization in ETF flows could alter market sentiment, provided no new macroeconomic shocks arise.
On the macroeconomic side, analysts assert that the present environment remains favorable, albeit overshadowed by the ongoing government shutdown in Washington. However, policy clarity is still elusive.
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The Federal Reserve’s recent 25 basis point reduction in October, which included some dissenting viewpoints, was accompanied by a careful tone that pushed back against expectations for another reduction in December.
Markets are currently pricing in a 60-65% likelihood of a subsequent move, but as the Fed’s blackout period persists, policymakers may become more inclined to pause, which would help sustain a strong dollar and tight credit conditions.
For Bitcoin to climb higher sustainably, CryptoQuant’s analysis indicates that a reversal in exchange-traded fund outflows and renewed trust in risk assets will likely be essential.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
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