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Bitcoin has initiated the fourth quarter of 2025 with a robust surge, increasing over 10% during the past week — climbing from approximately $109,000 on September 27 to more than $122,000 today.
However, Bitcoin could ascend to unprecedented highs if the U.S. government shutdown persists, as indicated by Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered.
Kendrick asserts that Bitcoin’s historically favorable correlation with U.S. Treasury term premiums implies the cryptocurrency may gain from extended fiscal ambiguity.
Kendrick remarked that amidst prolonged market tension — scenarios that typically benefit digitally scarce assets — Bitcoin has historically exhibited significant durability. In this instance, the extended tension arises from the U.S. government’s ongoing shutdown.
Standard Chartered’s prediction now sets Bitcoin at $135,000 in the near term, with an end-of-year estimate of $200,000, demonstrating strong confidence in the token’s growth potential.
At present, bitcoin is trading around $122,200, just below its August peak of $124,480.
Bitcoin ready for a surge
The possibility of an extended U.S. government shutdown adds an additional layer of market unpredictability, frequently impacting both equities and fixed-income securities.
For bitcoin, these circumstances could act as a trigger, reinforcing its position as a safeguard against conventional market fluctuations.
Bitcoin has moved laterally in recent months, but significant liquidity indicators indicate a breakout may be imminent. Global M2 growth, trends in stablecoin supply, and gold’s upward movement — which Bitcoin has closely followed with a 40-day delay — all indicate an upward trajectory.
JPMorgan analysts also perceive Bitcoin as undervalued in relation to gold, estimating a theoretical potential rise to $165,000 if the “debasement trade” — investing in assets that mitigate fiat currency risk — continues.
With September closing approximately 5% higher at $114,000, historical trends suggest a robust possibility for considerable gains in Q4, backed by increasing retail and institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs and custody solutions.
Data indicates that in years such as 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, positive September closings were succeeded by fourth-quarter rallies averaging over 50%.
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