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Essential insights:
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Bitcoin surged 4.5% in 48 hours, reclaiming $114,000.
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A reset in BTC’s open interest suggests a healthier upside following extended de-leveraging.
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A CME gap around $111,300 poses a short-term threat to bullish momentum.
Bitcoin (BTC) price surged 4.5% in under 48 hours, testing $114,000 again on Monday. This recovery came after last week’s significant correction from Monday to Saturday, where data suggested the pullback was less due to aggressive shorting and more related to long positions de-leveraging to establish a cleaner foundation for future upward movements.
From Sept. 21 to Sept. 27, Bitcoin fell from $115,600 to $109,500, marking a 5.3% decline alongside a 6.2% decrease in futures open interest (OI) down to $39.9 billion from $42.6 billion. The 30-day correlation between price and OI tightened to +0.46, indicating that longs were reducing exposure rather than shorts driving the move. Such resets typically eliminate excess leverage, setting the stage for healthier rallies.
Spot market trends are also favorably shifting. Buyers continued to dominate centralized exchanges, with net 30-day flows remaining negative at approximately 170,000 BTC, signifying that more coins are exiting exchanges than entering. This trend is frequently perceived as a signal of accumulation and diminishes sell-side pressure.
Meanwhile, crypto market analyst Dom highlighted that the near-term target could exceed $115,000. The analyst remarked,
“The liquidation divergence has unfolded quite effectively. Spot books remain thin up until ~$115K on Binance. Thin books = easier to move price. Still need the bulls to maintain their aggressiveness to achieve that.”
Funding rates have settled into a neutral zone, mitigating the risk of cascading long squeezes and instead supporting a gradual reconstruction of leverage. However, there is a lack of alignment between the aggregated spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) and OI.
Spot CVD has remained largely stable during Monday’s rally, while OI is slowly increasing. Price movement could invite late spot bids should prices stabilize above $113,000, setting the groundwork for the highly anticipated “Uptober” rally.
Related: $300K Bitcoin target ‘growing more probable,’ analyst states
CME gap threat persists around $111,300
Despite Bitcoin’s surge past $114,000, derivatives traders may be keeping an eye on a CME gap that remains unaddressed between $111,300 and $110,900. CME gaps occur when Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange close for the weekend and reopen at a different price point, leaving a notable void on charts. Historically, BTC has exhibited a strong inclination to revisit these levels, with every gap since June being completely closed.
This indicates that a short-term retracement towards the $111,000 area cannot be discounted before the upward rally extends. The CME gap also overlaps with a fair value gap, and a decline to $111,000 would also sweep the internal liquidity block between $112,300 and $111,400.
Thus, a short-term decline near these points remains a possibility over the next few days. An immediate bullish invalidation would be a strong daily close above $115,000, potentially reducing the likelihood of a drop to $111,000.
While historical patterns highlight that CME gap fills are not guaranteed, its recent 100% closure rate renders it a significant technical factor for traders assessing near-term risks within Bitcoin’s broader optimistic Q4 outlook.
Related: BTC price set for $108K fluctuations: 5 key points to consider in Bitcoin this week
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action carries risks, and readers should engage in their own research when making decisions.
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