Will XRP Bounce Back in October?

Main insights:

• XRP remains above a vital threshold in September, enhancing optimism for a possible rebound in October.

• Overcoming the $2.81 resistance is crucial, with technical indicators forecasting approximately a 30% surge to $3.62.

XRP (XRP) was trading at the monthly opening near $2.77 after a decline of 14% over the preceding two weeks. Maintaining this position ignites optimism for a potential recovery entering October.

XRP price needs to stay above $2.75

XRP encounters a significant challenge near the September 1 opening at approximately $2.75, as per analysts.

This price point corresponds with the lower edge of a symmetrical triangle, as illustrated in the daily chart below. Holding above this trendline would enhance the likelihood of surpassing the downward trendline at $2.86 (the 100-day simple moving average (SMA)). Such a move could facilitate reaching the optimistic target of the triangle at $3.62.

The Glassnode distribution heatmap indicates a substantial concentration of demand between $2.75, where nearly 1.58 billion XRP were acquired, emphasizing the significance of this level.

Nonetheless, there exists a supply barrier near $2.81 (encompassing the 100-day SMA), which could hinder short-term recovery initiatives.

Related: Will XRP price crash after again dropping below $3?

In contrast, a decline beneath $2.75 could instigate another sell-off towards $2.00, marking the bearish target of the symmetrical triangle.

“$XRP is undergoing a strong bullish consolidation,” noted analyst Hardy in an X post on Sunday, mentioning that as long as the price stays above the $2.72-$2.75 range, the “potential for growth remains viable.”

Another analyst, XForceGlobal, highlighted that the longer XRP stabilizes around $2.75, the more significant the breakout, adding that $20-30 targets remain achievable.

As Cointelegraph reported, XRP might decline to $2.50 before a price recovery, based on Fibonacci extension analysis.

October generally is a poor month for XRP

Regrettably for the bulls, XRP usually encounters difficulties in October. Since 2013, the price has closed negatively in seven of the last twelve months, with average returns diminishing approximately −4.58%.

Conversely, November typically emerges as the most favorable month, making the period from October to December the best quarter for XRP price surges. It stands as the sole three-month timeframe with average gains of 51%, according to data from Cryptorank.

Examining recent years, XRP increased approximately 240% in Q4/2024 and 20% in Q4/2023. The surge was even more dramatic in 2017, yielding gains of 1,064% between October 1 and December 1.

Even during bear cycles, exemplified by 2018’s -39.1% and 2022’s -29.2% losses, these were anomalies. Regardless, the year’s final quarter consistently delivers substantial movements.

If past trends are any indication, XRP’s price action could completely reverse in Q4/2025, with that recovery possibly beginning by mid-October.

XRP ETFs could ignite “Uptober”

October’s ETF spotlight may provide additional momentum for XRP’s rally, as SEC deadlines approach mid-month.

Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF decision has been postponed to November 14, while REX/Osprey’s XRPR debuted on September 18 with nearly $38 million in volume on its first day.

Grayscale’s verdict is anticipated on October 18, with crucial deadlines for additional applications falling between October 19 and October 25.

Streamlined SEC criteria and post-Ripple lawsuit clarity have boosted approval chances to 100% by December 31, unlocking a possible $4–$8 billion in first-year inflows, according to analysts.

However, market participants have also warned that this likely event may be partially priced in already, increasing the risk that approvals result in a “sell the news” scenario.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risks, and readers should conduct their own investigations when making a decision.