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According to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, a previously almost flawless four‑year Bitcoin trend now appears to be less dependable. Supply reductions, interest rate changes, and crash vulnerabilities used to create significant fluctuations. Currently, new dynamics are taking charge.
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Halving’s Influence Diminishes Each Cycle
Hougan emphasizes that every Bitcoin halving still halves the introduction of new coins but is becoming increasingly insignificant over time. Initially, this shock instigated dramatic increases.
Now, with a market capitalization in the hundreds of billions, the same supply reduction holds half the significance every four years. Back in 2016 and 2020, prices surged over 150% during halving occurrences. Presently, movements remain below 50% within comparable periods.
According to insights from the Bitwise CIO, interest rates have been more accommodating this round. In 2018 and 2022, the US Federal Reserve’s tightening coincided with severe crypto declines, with Bitcoin falling 72% and 69% from peak to lowest point. Currently, rates are either relaxing or on hold, leading to upward trends in crypto trading instead of downward ones.
Why is the four-year cycle obsolete?
1) The influences that previously created four-year cycles are diminishing:
i) The halving holds half the significance every four years;
ii) The interest rate cycle is favorable for crypto, not adverse (as it was in 2018 and 2022);
iii) Blow-up hazard is… https://t.co/F9ybjHEeB5
— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) July 25, 2025
Institutional Movements Surpass Old Patterns
Hougan notes that ETFs are the emerging growth engine—and they operate on a 5–10 year horizon. Spot Bitcoin ETFs commenced in January 2024 and have since attracted over $10 billion in net inflows. This steady influx cannot be attributed to a singular four‑year occurrence.
Pension funds and endowments are preparing as well. Many major investors only began discussing crypto last year, and overcoming internal obstacles takes quarters or years. When they finally engage, their billions could transform markets far beyond retail movements.
🚨DID I HEAR SUPER CYCLE???
The four-year cycle is extinct; adoption has caused its demise. @Matt_Hougan predicts we’re headed higher in 2026.
Early profit-takers will miss out!!!
Complete breakdown with @JSeyff and @Matt_Hougan in comments👇 pic.twitter.com/Ffn9penapN
— Kyle Chassé / DD🐸 (@kyle_chasse) July 25, 2025
Regulatory Developments Accelerate This Year
According to Hougan, regulatory clarity commenced in January 2025 with new custody regulations, tax frameworks, and licensing structures. These measures reduce systemic risk and clear the path for banks and asset managers to introduce crypto services on their platforms.
Based on his analysis, the recent Genius Act—approved this month—has opened avenues on prime‑broker platforms. This indicates that trading desks, clearinghouses, and research teams can invest billions within weeks to months. While this type of build-out requires time, it is long-lasting.
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Treasury Firms Arise As A Wild Card
A new cyclical risk highlighted by Hougan is the emergence of Treasury firms providing short‑term lending and yield products. If they expand too rapidly without proper oversight, a collapse could still instigate a market sell-off. This represents a new type of risk that wasn’t present in previous cycles.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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