Bitcoin Experiences Unprecedented Stability, Outpaced by S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Bitcoin surpassed anticipations in April, attaining double-digit advancements while exhibiting reduced volatility compared to significant conventional assets.

Per experts at Galaxy Digital, Bitcoin’s (BTC) actualized volatility over the past 10 trading periods decreased to 43.86, which is lower than the S&P 500’s 47.29 and the Nasdaq 100’s 51.26 — an atypical “positioning for a digital asset historically recognized for its significant volatility.”

This data point arises amidst renewed economic turbulence. Following US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff declaration on April 2, traditional markets have experienced instability.

The Nasdaq Composite remains stagnant, the Bloomberg Dollar Index dropped nearly 4%, and even gold (generally perceived as a safe haven) briefly reached $3,500 per ounce before retreating to a 5.75% gain, Galaxy Digital analysts noted in a May 12 report.

Nevertheless, they emphasized that Bitcoin rallied 11% during the same timeframe, underscoring its transforming role as a macro hedge in light of geopolitical and fiscal unpredictability.

Related: Bitcoin illiquid supply reaches 14M BTC as hodlers establish bull market record

Bitcoin’s correlation with major indexes diminishes

The experts observed that Bitcoin still retains high 30-day correlations with leading indexes, approximately 0.62 with the S&P and 0.64 with the Nasdaq. However, its beta has reduced, indicating that investors may be regarding it less as a high-risk asset and more as a long-term investment.

“Bitcoin as a non-sovereign asset implies that an investor does not require the full faith or tax basis of a nation to uphold the asset’s integrity,” stated Chris Rhine, head of liquid active strategies at Galaxy.

Galaxy indicated that the recent investor behavior reflects what was seen during the 2018–2019 US-China trade frictions when Bitcoin surged amid escalating global uncertainty.

Hank Huang, CEO of Kronos Research, told Cointelegraph that rising ETF inflows and ongoing Bitcoin acquisitions are contributing to reshaping Bitcoin into a digital counterpart of gold, increasingly detached from equities.

“As institutions enhance liquidity, volatility declines, positioning Bitcoin as a fundamental element for portfolios,” Huang added.

Institutions perceive Bitcoin as a hedge

Meanwhile, Galaxy’s OTC trading desk remarked that the market positioning is “tactically cautious but structurally advantageous,” characterized by disciplined leverage and minimal hedging pressure.

With 95% of Bitcoin’s overall supply already extracted and growing interest from institutions, ETFs, and even governmental bodies, Bitcoin is progressively regarded as a digital store of value.

“Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics are cementing its status as a mature digital store of value,” remarked Ian Kolman, co-portfolio manager at Galaxy.

On April 25, Jay Jacobs, BlackRock’s head of thematics and active ETFs, mentioned that there has been a persistent trend wherein countries have been decreasing their dependence on dollar-based reserves in favor of assets like gold and, increasingly, Bitcoin.

He pointed out that geopolitical fragmentation is intensifying the demand for uncorrelated assets, with Bitcoin being viewed increasingly alongside gold as a secure asset.

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