The initial fortnight of the ether sale has concluded, and as of now, we have acquired more than 25000 BTC from trading over 50 million ETH. This signifies the largest cryptocurrency token sale to date, and alongside the two donations, it positions ETH as the token with the 8th highest total market value, even surpassing the cherished Dogecoin at 15.5M. There have been a total of 6670 transactions, with amounts varying from the minimum of 0.01 BTC to a maximum of 500 BTC, and acquisitions are still coming in every hour. Furthermore, the ether sale signifies the largest utilization of multisig to date; due to our sale, the percentage of all BTC held in multisig has surged from 0.23% to 0.41% over just the past two weeks – in essence, the 3-of-4 private keys distributed across our various platforms manage 45% of all BTC stored in multisig addresses currently in existence.
This post aims to furnish an overview of certain statistics regarding the sale thus far. The data was captured yesterday when we had 24000 BTC, assuming that all transactions were made at the rate of 2000 ETH / BTC (an assumption that may not be entirely accurate, but the error margin is negligible enough to disregard). Initially, we have this spreadsheet, which illustrates the ether purchases over time.
The individual peaks reflect per-block activity; the graph indicates that the distribution is predominantly divided into two segments, with one segment nearer to the commencement of the sale and the other close to the conclusion of the full-discount phase. Purchases sharply decline once the new price level of 1970 ETH/BTC (currently 1910 ETH/BTC) was implemented. Theoretically, buying towards the end of the full-discount period is the most advantageous tactic based on a simplistic game-theory model; if you make your purchase towards the end of the full-discount phase, you obtain the same price as those who bought at the start, yet you also benefit from possessing more information – specifically, a clearer understanding of the exact percentage of all ETH you stand to receive. Consequently, the fact that the majority of acquisitions happened towards the end illustrates that ether buyers are typically quite knowledgeable – which one would expect if they were persuaded to exchange their hard-earned BTC for cryptographic tokens predicated on a notion of “generalized consensus computing”.
Nevertheless, it is essential to recognize that there are valid reasons for purchasing early as well. Some individuals are partaking in the sale to endorse the project, while certain substantial purchasers may have perhaps been influenced by the priming effect, wherein depositing larger amounts of money (e.g., bills) into a tipping jar at the very beginning increases the total amount collected due to the perception that the recipient holds significance and deserves larger contributions.
At this juncture, we can anticipate a diminishing flow that will stabilize over the upcoming days, followed by a smaller final surge on day 42. The chart below depicts the cumulative ether sold up to this point:
https://docs.google.com/a/ethereum.org/spreadsheets/d/1H5w9YVp1eRoNP8N9UFFvCcz51Q5DxzJaOVliCAAT46g/gviz/chartiframe?oid=831527247
Another fascinating aspect to examine is the distribution of purchases. This spreadsheet contains a list of transactions organized by their size. The largest single acquisition was 500 BTC (1 million ether), followed by one at 466 BTC (933,580 ETH), and 330 BTC (660,360 ETH). We have not received any inquiries at largepurchases@ethereum.org. When we categorize purchases by size, we produce the following two graphs, one detailing the volume of purchases and another illustrating the amount of ETH acquired, categorized by purchase size:
https://docs.google.com/a/ethereum.org/spreadsheets/d/1GS9pzSdMx9lK0XGSKEDr_aoi02riq3MPRyvEntVUm68/gviz/chartiframe?oid=168457404
https://docs.google.com/a/ethereum.org/spreadsheets/d/1GS9pzSdMx9lK0XGSKEDr_aoi02riq3MPRyvEntVUm68/gviz/chartiframe?oid=846945325
It is important to note that this only pertains to purchases. There exists another portion of ether that will soon be disseminated, that is the endowment. The sections in which the endowment is intended to be distributed are on the spreadsheet; the maximum equals 0.922% of all ether acquired (i.e., 0.369% of the total supply after five years) while the minimum stands at 0.004%, with a total of 81 individuals receiving a portion. If you happen to be one of the recipients, expect to be contacted soon; if not, there remains a second allocation whose distribution is yet to be determined.
Distribution and Gini Indices
As a concluding collection of intriguing statistics, we have computed three Gini indices:
- Gini index of ether buyers: 0.832207
- Gini index of endowment: 0.599638
- Gini index of complete set: 0.836251
A Gini index serves as a prevalent indicator of inequality; the methodology for calculating the Gini index involves plotting a graph, with both axes ranging from 0% to 100%, and drawing a line where the Y coordinate at any given X coordinate represents the proportion of all income (or wealth) owned by the lowest X percent of the populace. The area between this curve and a diagonal line, relative to the area of the entire triangle beneath the diagonal line, constitutes the Gini index:
In an ideal community characterized by perfect equality, the coefficient would be zero; the lowest X% of the population would naturally possess X% of the wealth, akin to any other X% of the population, meaning the cumulative wealth distribution graph would perfectly align with the diagonal line, making the area between the graph and the diagonal line nonexistent. Conversely, in a scenario of total dictatorship where one individual possesses everything, the lowest X% would have nothing until reaching the last person, who would hold everything; thus, the area between that curve and the diagonal line would equal the total area under the diagonal line, resulting in a coefficient of exactly one. Most actual scenarios tend to fall somewhere in between these two extremes.
It is important to recognize that Gini coefficients reflecting wealth and those pertaining to income are distinct concepts; one assesses the accumulations of individuals, while the other gauges the rate at which individuals acquire wealth. As savings escalate disproportionately with income, wealth coefficients usually register higher; for instance, the Gini coefficient of wealth in the US is 0.801, while the global coefficient stands at 0.804. Considering that Gini coefficients in the real world indicate the inequality of resource accessibility, and Gini coefficients concerning cryptocurrency distribution stem from both resource inequality and interest disparity (some individuals show slight interest in Ethereum, while others are deeply invested), a result of 0.836 is quite commendable – for comparison, the Gini coefficient of Bitcoin has been reported at 0.877. The top 100 current ETH holders control 45.7% of all ETH, a lower figure than that of the top 100 holders of major altcoins, where this statistic usually ranges between 55% and 70%.
Naturally, these final two comparisons can be misleading – the Ethereum ecosystem hasn’t yet begun full operations, and entities such as exchanges, which centralize control over currency units within a few wallets without centralized legal ownership, artificially inflate both the Gini index and the top-100 score of cryptocurrency networks that are presently operational. Once Ethereum goes live, the Gini index may become exceedingly difficult to estimate accurately, as significant amounts of ether will be housed within decentralized applications implementing arbitrary, Turing-complete, and thus in numerous instances mathematically unfathomable, regulations regarding the withdrawal of ether.
The sale still has 28 days remaining; while we don’t anticipate much from this last phase, anything could happen. With organizational challenges nearing resolution, the organization is preparing to significantly ramp up development, placing us on a swift path toward finalizing the Ethereum code and initiating the genesis block; estimated arrival in winter 2014-2015.
