{"id":8666,"date":"2025-02-17T18:41:40","date_gmt":"2025-02-17T17:41:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/?p=8666"},"modified":"2025-02-17T18:41:40","modified_gmt":"2025-02-17T17:41:40","slug":"will-bitcoin-soar-to-new-heights-post-us-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/17\/will-bitcoin-soar-to-new-heights-post-us-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Bitcoin Soar to New Heights Post-US Election?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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With less than three weeks remaining until the US presidential election, ambiguity in the BTC market has escalated, with premiums on associated options transactions already hitting 10 percent. A substantial number of long-term call option transactions involving 600 contracts at a strike price of $120,000 appeared during the US trading session. Concurrently, the BTC spot ETF recorded $456.9 million in inflows yesterday, marking four consecutive days of capital influx. Traders are gearing up for what unfolds post 5 November and how the new administration will react to elements influencing financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n
Cryptocurrencies have been experiencing an upward trend over the past week, spurred by China’s stimulus initiatives, interest rate reductions by Western central banks, and likely the U.S. election becoming a more pronounced focal point for the reasons behind the recent increase.<\/p>\n
Although cryptocurrencies only gained considerable popularity during a previous presidential election (2020), the latter half of October typically signifies the onset of a bullish phase for financial assets like equities, thus the recent movements in cryptocurrencies may not be unexpected.<\/p>\n
In fact, Bitcoin’s (BTC) performance, based on Coinglass data from 2013 to 2023, indicates that returns in the latter half of October (16-31) are double those of the first half (1-15).<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
(Source: Coinglass)<\/p>\n
Election Influence<\/strong><\/p>\n
Insights from ETC Group, a division of Bitwise Asset Management, reveal that there is indecision in token prices stemming from the electoral outcome.<\/p>\n
Utilizing implied returns against theoretical values, ETC Group discovered that Bitcoin could gain 10% in either direction contingent on the election results. Given that the current spot price is slightly under $68,000, a 10 percent increase would lead to a new peak, exceeding March\u2019s $73,750.07. The analysis also indicated that the election’s effects will likely resonate most profoundly with Cardano (ADA) and Dogecoin (DOGE), which have risen by 18% and 20%, respectively.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
\uff08Source: ETC Group\uff09<\/p>\n
Moreover, Ycharts statistics reveal that in presidential election years since 1950, the stock market tends to reach its lowest point in September and\/or October before rebounding in November. Thus far, this trend is evident in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which have both increased since the beginning of last month.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
\uff08Source: YCharts\uff09<\/p>\n
Apart from the U.S. election, the options market indicates a bullish stance towards bitcoin, with the majority of call open positions concentrated at $70,000 and $80,000 strike prices. Set to expire on 29 November, the strike prices have notional values of $141 million and $120 million, respectively.<\/p>\n
The bullish sentiment was even more prominent for the December 27 expiry, with the majority of call open positions clustering around $100,000 strike prices with a combined notional value exceeding $620 million, per Deribit.<\/p>\n
Geoffrey Kendrick, who leads global digital asset research at the British multinational bank Standard Chartered, noted in a report on Tuesday, \u2018As the U.S. election nears, Trump is the most probable candidate to be elected, and even from a digital asset perspective, Harris appears favorable as well, suggesting that the broader digital asset ecosystem may increasingly go mainstream.\u2019<\/p>\n
\u2018For BTC, this implies that Bitcoin is poised to ascend to an all-time high of $74K ahead of the election.\u2019<\/p>\n
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