{"id":8622,"date":"2025-02-16T23:48:48","date_gmt":"2025-02-16T22:48:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/?p=8622"},"modified":"2025-02-16T23:48:48","modified_gmt":"2025-02-16T22:48:48","slug":"navigating-economic-tensions-the-impact-of-trade-wars-on-policy-directions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/16\/navigating-economic-tensions-the-impact-of-trade-wars-on-policy-directions\/","title":{"rendered":"Navigating Economic Tensions: The Impact of Trade Wars on Policy Directions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"p2\"><span class=\"s2\">THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas <\/span><span class=\"s3\">(BSP) is anticipated to persist in its easing trajectory, however, secondary repercussions from <\/span><span class=\"s4\">an imminent global trade conflict could <\/span><span class=\"s3\">obstruct its policy direction, analysts indicated.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s5\">\u201cThe BSP remains in a loosening stance from a fundamentally tight monetary policy; it has yet to reverse its considerable tightening from prior years,\u201d stated GlobalSource Partners Country Analyst and former BSP Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">\u201cNevertheless, the BSP might find itself navigating its easing strategy confronted with upward risks,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">The central bank unexpectedly maintained interest rates last Thursday, keeping the target reverse repurchase rate (RRP) steady at 5.75%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">This came after the Monetary Board executed three consecutive rate reductions since it initiated easing in August, totaling a decrease of 75 basis points (bps) by the conclusion of 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\"><span class=\"s4\">BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. noted that the choice to maintain rates was influenced by global uncertainties stemming from the US&#8217; tariff regulations. He expressed greater concern regarding the indirect impacts of these tariff actions, since the direct effects on the Philippines are expected to be modest. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s2\">Markets have been disturbed by concerns of a global trade war triggered by US President Donald J. Trump&#8217;s proposal to impose reciprocal tariffs on any nation that taxes US imports. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Mr. Guinigundo remarked that these tariff modifications could have an immediate effect on price levels and domestic inflation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s6\">\u201cTrade uncertainties tend to elevate the risk premium and may also introduce inflationary pressures. The direct impact of tariffs and trade uncertainties along with fluctuating fuel prices could be restrained at this point, but the indirect influences on wages, transport fares, and domestic pricing might be considerable,\u201d he stated.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Mr. Guinigundo indicated that these secondary repercussions might \u201caccumulate into inflation\u201d in the forthcoming months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">According to a report from Capital Economics, the indirect effects of reciprocal tariffs \u201ccould potentially be larger\u201d than a blanket tariff.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s6\">\u201cA reciprocal tariff might diminish the appeal for friendshoring in those emerging markets that maintain high tariff barriers, as multinational corporations would likely consider alternative, less vulnerable locations for their supply chain arrangements \u2014 particularly Vietnam and other regions in Southeast Asia as well as advanced economies,\u201d they noted.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">ANZ Research posited that emerging Asian economies would be subjected to a \u201cdirect line of fire\u201d should reciprocal tariffs be enforced.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">\u201cCurrent trade tensions might escalate significantly if the US government enacts reciprocal tariffs on Asian markets,\u201d stated ANZ.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s6\">\u201cIn contrast to 2018, when these economies only faced secondary repercussions from the US-China trade war, they would now experience a direct impact.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">The United States is the primary destination for Philippine exports, while China typically represents the largest source of imports for the Philippines.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Citi Economist for the Philippines Nalin Chutchotitham mentioned that these trade regulations could exert pressure on the peso.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">\u201cLooking forward, the postponed Fed funds rate reduction and uncertainties regarding US trade policies pose risks of peso depreciation, which might affect inflation via imports of food and energy, in addition to converted income remittances from overseas workers,\u201d she remarked.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><b>MEASURED EASING<br \/>\n<\/b>In spite of the pause last week, analysts suggested that the BSP is likely to proceed with easing rates, but at a cautious and calculated pace.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s7\">\u201cWe believe the decision indicates that the BSP is seeking to temper the pace of the easing cycle (after three successive cuts), based on the governor\u2019s definition of \u2018measured\u2019 and lacking a robust justification for the hold decision,\u201d remarked Nomura Global Markets Research analysts Euben Paracuelles and Nabila Amani.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Bank of the Philippine Islands Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. expressed that he perceives limited potential for monetary easing this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">\u201cA narrowing interest rate differential might cause capital outflows, while the nation\u2019s current account deficit amplifies its susceptibility to external shocks\u2026 Maintaining steady interest rates may be necessary to alleviate these risks. We still project the policy rate to close the year at 5.25%,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">For the remainder of the year, Mr. Guinigundo expects two additional rate reductions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">\u201cDepending on forthcoming data regarding inflation and inflation expectations, two more rate cuts could be anticipated,\u201d he mentioned.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">\u201cEasing monetary policy might yield marginal benefits for growth. However, tightening could ensure more favorable outcomes in managing inflation without significant collateral damage to growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Simultaneously, Nomura forecasts the Monetary Board will lower borrowing costs by 75 bps through three rate cuts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">\u201cWe continue to predict an additional 75 bps of policy rate reductions in this phase, bringing the RRP rate down to 5%, which we still consider to be the BSP\u2019s neutral rate, given its forward guidance suggesting its stance remains tight and that it intends to lessen this tightness.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s6\">Both Nomura and Citi anticipate the Monetary Board to enact rate cuts in April, August, and December by 25 bps each.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s6\">\u201cWhile we believe the BSP could manage a total reduction of 75 bps this year, considering a high real policy rate and favorable interest rate differential with the Fed, Governor Remolona\u2019s more cautious forward guidance of a total of 50-bp cuts this year implies that a third cut still depends on various factors beyond domestic demand and inflation,\u201d Ms. Chutchotitham elaborated.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Similarly, Mr. Neri indicated that the BSP could recommence rate cuts in June.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s6\">\u201cFurther policy easing remains plausible later this year, particularly if the outlook for domestic inflation remains positive. There is a possibility that the BSP could cut in June if the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in May continues to lag,\u201d he asserted.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Nevertheless, he cautioned that uncertainties from the Federal Reserve\u2019s guidance and changing global dynamics could render rate cuts in the latter half of the year more difficult.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Mr. Remolona has stated that the BSP is still engaged in an easing cycle, noting the possibility of rate cuts up to 50 bps this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><b>RRR CUT IN APRIL<br \/>\n<\/b>Meanwhile, Nomura anticipates the BSP to further decrease the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in April.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">\u201cWe believe April is a feasible timeframe, as the demand for liquidity may rise ahead of the midterm elections in May,\u201d they mentioned.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s6\">\u201cWe have also argued that this sequencing (i.e., RRR cuts first followed by additional RRP rate cuts) is logical. From the BSP&#8217;s perspective, these reductions align with its long-term objective of lowering the RRR to single-digit levels while also enhancing the transmission of its policy rate cuts later in the year.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Mr. Remolona has indicated that an RRR reduction is still under consideration this year, potentially before the Monetary Board\u2019s next policy review on April 3.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s7\">He has indicated a potential 200-bp decrease, which would adjust the RRR for major banks to 5% from the current 7%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">\u201cSuch a move could potentially bolster economic activity while exerting minimal impact on the exchange rate in comparison to the policy rate,\u201d Ms. Chutchotitham added. \u2014<b> Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson<\/b><\/p>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bworldonline.com\/top-stories\/2025\/02\/17\/653517\/trade-war-may-hamper-policy-path\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is anticipated to persist in its easing trajectory, however, secondary repercussions from an imminent global trade conflict could obstruct its policy direction, analysts indicated. \u201cThe BSP remains in a loosening stance from a fundamentally tight monetary policy; it has yet to reverse its considerable tightening from prior years,\u201d stated<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":8623,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[1317],"class_list":["post-8622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy-and-markets","tag-return-a-list-of-comma-separated-tags-from-this-title-trade-war-may-hamper-policy-path"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - 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