{"id":8350,"date":"2025-02-09T23:12:51","date_gmt":"2025-02-09T22:12:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/?p=8350"},"modified":"2025-02-09T23:12:51","modified_gmt":"2025-02-09T22:12:51","slug":"bsp-set-to-lower-interest-rates-by-25-basis-points-according-to-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/09\/bsp-set-to-lower-interest-rates-by-25-basis-points-according-to-forecasts\/","title":{"rendered":"BSP Set to Lower Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points, According to Forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"p2\">By <b>Luisa Maria Jacinta C. <\/b><span class=\"s4\"><b>Jocson, <\/b><\/span><i>Reporter <\/i><\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\"><span class=\"s5\">THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng <\/span>Pilipinas (BSP) is anticipated to lower <span class=\"s6\">rates for a fourth consecutive meeting <\/span>on Thursday, analysts indicated, in light of target-compliant inflation and disappointing gross domestic product (GDP).<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">A <i>BusinessWorld<\/i> survey conducted last week revealed that 19 out of 20 analysts foresee the Monetary Board reducing the target reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points (bps) during its policy evaluation on Feb. 13.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">If this occurs, it would decrease the benchmark rate from the current 5.75% to 5.5%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">This would also signify the fourth consecutive meeting in which the BSP has reduced rates since commencing its easing cycle in August.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">In 2024, the central bank has diminished borrowing costs by a total of 75 bps.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s7\">Conversely, one analyst anticipates that the central bank will maintain interest rates unchanged during the meeting.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s5\">\u201cWe foresee the BSP reducing the policy rate by 25 bps to 5.5% at its Monetary Board meeting,\u201d stated Security Bank Corp. Vice-President and Head of Research Division Angelo B. Taningco.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s5\">Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco from Pantheon Macroeconomics remarked that monetary policy normalization is \u201cfar from finished\u201d given the high interest rates.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cI anticipate the Monetary Board will cut further this week, by an additional 25 bps, especially with the fourth-quarter GDP coming in weaker than anticipated and with inflation consistently within <span class=\"s7\">the BSP\u2019s target range,\u201d he mentioned.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Citi Economist for the Philippines Nalin Chutchotitham stated that the BSP is likely to implement a 25-bp cut on Thursday following below-par growth in 2024 and a moderate inflation forecast.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Previously, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said that a rate cut remains \u201con the table\u201d for this week.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe central bank might use the slower-than-expected growth from last quarter as the main justification for the cut, in conjunction with a stable inflation landscape allowing the central bank to concentrate more on economic stimulation,\u201d remarked Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Chinabank Research stated that price pressures have stayed \u201cgenerally mild and manageable.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cHeadline inflation holding steady at 2.9% in January, and <span class=\"s7\">core inflation even decreasing slightly, <\/span>will be crucial inputs for the Monetary Board,\u201d said Nomura Global Markets Research analyst Euben Paracuelles.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Headline inflation remained stable at 2.9% in January, within the central bank\u2019s targeted range of 2-4%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">HSBC economist for ASEAN Aris D. Dacanay indicated that inflation is \u201cnot particularly concerning\u201d as the latest consumer price index results were well within targets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p7\"><b>WEAK GROWTH<br \/>\n<\/b><span class=\"s5\">In the meantime, analysts observed that the most recent economic output figures could lead to further policy loosening.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cHaving achieved its inflation target in 2024, combined with a target-consistent inflation forecast this year, the BSP is positioned to lower its policy rate following another underwhelming GDP growth estimate,\u201d noted Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Patrick M. Ella, economist at Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp., remarked that weak GDP is a \u201cmore urgent concern\u201d for the time being, hence the BSP \u201cmust support growth on the monetary front.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe country\u2019s underwhelming economic performance for both the fourth quarter and full-year 2024 further justifies a less restrictive monetary policy to assist in achieving the government\u2019s 6-8% target for this year,\u201d stated Chinabank.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The Philippines\u2019 GDP rose by a slower-than-expected 5.2% in the fourth quarter, bringing the full-year 2024 growth to 5.6%, falling short of the government&#8217;s 6-6.5% goal.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cWeaker GDP figures for the second consecutive quarter and the slowest in 1.5 years, since Q2 of 2023, would further bolster local policy rate reductions,\u201d remarked Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The BSP chief mentioned earlier that the country is growing at a \u201cslightly below capacity.\u201d If the output gap widens further, this would necessitate additional easing, Mr. Remolona added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe BSP\u2019s ongoing rate actions contribute to decreased funding costs and business expenses while laying the groundwork for investment-driven growth that can create jobs and income,\u201d stated Mr. Asuncion.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Mr. Dacanay observed that relaxing monetary policy will \u201chelp boost demand for credit and foster growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThis serves as a vital market signal to enhance business activity and expenditure following the disappointing GDP growth figures for the last quarter of 2024,\u201d indicated Oikonomia Advisory &amp; Research, Inc. economist Reinielle Matt Erece.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p7\"><b>PESO<br \/>\n<\/b>In the meantime, the peso\u2019s recent appreciation may also empower the BSP to persist in its easing cycle.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe recent stability of the peso could also afford the BSP more flexibility to contemplate a rate reduction,\u201d stated Mr. Neri.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe currency has gained strength in recent trading sessions following the US government&#8217;s choice to delay its tariffs against Canada and Mexico. Although a rate cut could apply pressure on the peso, improving market sentiment may alleviate this.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The peso closed at P58.03 per dollar on Friday, appreciating by 15 centavos from its P58.18 close on Thursday. This marked its strongest finish in over a month since its P57.91-per-dollar close on Jan. 2.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Week over week, the peso climbed by 33.5 centavos from its P58.365 finish on Jan. 31.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cFurthermore, the BSP might also consider a higher exchange rate, provided inflation stays within guidelines. A weaker peso could also enhance the economy by increasing the purchasing power of exporters and OFW households,\u201d Mr. Neri added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Meanwhile, Mr. Dacanay indicated that there remains an opportunity for the BSP to narrow its interest rate spread with the US Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cCurrently at 125 bps, history has demonstrated that the gap between the BSP and the upper-end range of the Fed rate can be as narrow as 100 bps before inciting financial unease,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Reuters reported that Federal Reserve officials indicated on Friday that the US job market remains robust and stressed the uncertainty surrounding how President Donald J. Trump\u2019s policies will impact economic growth and existing elevated inflation, emphasizing their cautious approach to interest rate reductions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The Fed maintained its policy rate unchanged last month, citing economic ambiguity.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cWe believe the BSP still has the potential to implement a 25-bp cut as the resulting interest rate differential, at 100 bps, remains at a comfortable level and would likely not endanger a significant depreciation of the peso against the US dollar,\u201d added Chinabank Research.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Conversely, Moody\u2019s Analytics economist Sarah Tan expressed that the BSP might choose to keep rates steady on Thursday, claiming it appears \u201cpremature\u201d to cut rates amidst trade war concerns.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe BSP will exercise caution in monitoring global events that could reinvigorate inflation and undermine the peso\u2019s strength,\u201d she remarked.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p7\"><b>CAUTIOUS EASING<br \/>\n<\/b>Looking ahead, analysts predict that the central bank will likely exercise caution and may implement fewer rate cuts than expected this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe BSP will probably persist in its cautious communication, considering ongoing inflation risks and amplified global uncertainties,\u201d noted Chinabank Research.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The central bank had previously cautioned that the risks to the inflation outlook remain skewed to the upside for this year and 2026.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s5\">\u201cThroughout 2025, we envision that monetary policy easing will persist but at a more tempered pace,\u201d indicated Ms. Tan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Mr. Remolona had previously signaled the potential of reducing rates by a total of 50 bps this year, noting that 75 bps or 100 bps might be seen as \u201cexcessive.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cWhile a rate reduction is still on the table, we anticipate that the extent of easing this year will be restricted,\u201d affirmed Mr. Neri.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe substantial current account deficit of the economy renders it more susceptible to external shocks, such as global trade tensions. A narrower interest rate differential could also lead to portfolio outflows as investors pursue higher returns elsewhere,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Mr. Neri predicts a total of 50 bps in rate cuts for this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cPreferring to front-load Mr. Remolona\u2019s inclination for a 50-bp reduction this year with the Fed on hold would be macro-appropriate even though it may lead to a weaker peso,\u201d Mr. Asuncion noted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">On the contrary, Mr. Ella anticipates that the central bank will initiate two rate cuts amounting to 50 bps in the first half, maintain rates through the third quarter, and then execute another 25-bp reduction in the final quarter.<\/p>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bworldonline.com\/top-stories\/2025\/02\/10\/652067\/bsp-to-cut-rates-by-25-bps-poll-2\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) is anticipated to lower rates for a fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday, analysts indicated, in light of target-compliant inflation and disappointing gross domestic product (GDP).\u00a0 \u00a0 A BusinessWorld survey conducted last week revealed that 19 out of 20 analysts foresee the Monetary<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":8351,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[1219],"class_list":["post-8350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy-and-markets","tag-return-a-list-of-comma-separated-tags-from-this-title-bsp-to-cut-rates-by-25-bps-poll"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>BSP Set to Lower Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points, According to Forecasts - WSJ-Crypto<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/09\/bsp-set-to-lower-interest-rates-by-25-basis-points-according-to-forecasts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"BSP Set to Lower Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points, According to Forecasts - WSJ-Crypto\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. 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