{"id":6931,"date":"2025-01-04T08:01:27","date_gmt":"2025-01-04T07:01:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/?p=6931"},"modified":"2025-01-04T08:01:27","modified_gmt":"2025-01-04T07:01:27","slug":"targeted-inflation-sustains-bsps-easing-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/04\/targeted-inflation-sustains-bsps-easing-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"Targeted Inflation Sustains BSP&#8217;s Easing Strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">By<b> Luisa Maria Jacinta C. <\/b><span class=\"s1\"><b>Jocson, <\/b><\/span><i>Correspondent<\/i><\/p>\n<p class=\"p4\"><span class=\"s2\">PHILIPPINE INFLATION is <\/span>anticipated to stay within the target for 2025, experts reported, paving the path for the central bank to persist with its easing trend.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cLooking forward, inflation is likely to be restrained, reflecting the easing in global commodity rates, along with regulatory actions such as tariff reductions on food products, notably on imported rice starting in July,\u201d stated ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) Senior Economist Andrew Tsang.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">AMRO forecasts that inflation will align with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas\u2019 (BSP) 2-4% target range for both 2024 and 2025.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cMore specifically, the average inflation rate is expected to be 3.2% in 2025, maintaining the same level as in 2024, which marks a significant decrease from the 6% recorded in 2023,\u201d Mr. Tsang noted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bworldonline.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Outlook-2025.jpg\"><\/a>Philippine headline inflation averaged 3.2% from January to November 2024. In 2024, monthly inflation figures have thus far remained within the BSP\u2019s target range, with the exception of a 4.4% surge in July.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The BSP anticipates inflation to average 3.2% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cWe still project the Philippines\u2019 inflation to stay within the BSP\u2019s 2-4% target bracket,\u201d Krisjanis Krustins, director at Fitch Ratings\u2019 Asia-Pacific Sovereigns division and leading sovereign ratings analyst for the Philippines, mentioned.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cIn my revised perspective, taking into account all risks and based on past and present information, inflation in 2025 will predominantly remain within the target range,\u201d Enrico P. Villanueva, a senior lecturer at the University of the Philippines Los Ba\u00f1os Economics Department, expressed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Since 2022, the Philippines has struggled with elevated inflation due to external challenges and supply chain disruptions. From April 2022 to November 2023, inflation exceeded the 2-4% target band.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe inflation outlook for 2025 significantly depends on external elements such as commodity prices and exchange rates, along with domestic supply-side management,\u201d remarked John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cWhile the BSP\u2019s easing trend is likely to persist, its direction will rely on inflation trends, peso stability, and movements in global monetary policy,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><b>PRICE RISKS<br \/>\n<\/b>However, analysts highlighted potential risks that could reignite inflation in 2025.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThere is always a possibility that a component of the consumer price index (CPI) will increase, such as in electricity and wages, as highlighted in the BSP\u2019s medium-term inflation trajectory,\u201d Mr. Villanueva noted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">He mentioned that these should be perceived as \u201cregular possibilities.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cWhat is essential for policymaking, nevertheless, is the intensity, probability, and correlation of these risks. Are the potential risks significant and likely enough to occur, and will these be prominent or countered by price reductions for other items in the consumer basket?\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The BSP previously indicated that the risks to the inflation outlook for 2025 and 2026 remain skewed to the upside.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThere could be some upward risk to inflation due to strong economic growth and rises in minimum wages,\u201d Mr. Tsang similarly mentioned.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">He pointed out shocks such as supply-side disturbances resulting from natural disasters, which could escalate food prices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe impacts of climate change through potential sequences of severe typhoons could devastate Luzon and the Visayas,\u201d Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc. Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion noted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The Philippines has been the most at-risk nation worldwide for 16 consecutive years, according to the latest World Risk Index (WRI), assessing a country&#8217;s vulnerability to natural disasters and its societal ability to respond.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">A recent study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also indicated that the Philippines could face a potential loss of 18.1% of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2070 due to climate change under a high emissions scenario.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cFurthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions in various regions, such as Ukraine and the Middle East, could heighten the risk of global supply disruptions leading to sharp increases in commodity prices and shipping expenses, resulting in further inflationary pressures,\u201d Mr. Tsang said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe effect would be aggravated if a sudden depreciation of the peso occurred due to external shocks,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Mr. Rivera mentioned that the depreciation of the peso attributable to a stronger dollar or trade imbalances \u201ccould elevate import costs, intensifying inflationary pressures.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The peso has significantly closed at its all-time low of P59 per dollar thrice in 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe greatest threats to the inflation forecast originate from external developments, notably trade policy, inflation, and interest rates in the US, via their influence on the Philippine peso,\u201d Mr. Krustins further stated.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Mr. Asuncion also recognized the potential spillovers from the upcoming Donald J. Trump administration. Mr. Trump is expected to take the US presidency on Jan. 20.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Economists have cautioned about the possible effects of Mr. Trump\u2019s protectionist trade policies on the Philippines, which heavily depends on the United States for its business and economic activities.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The US remains the nation\u2019s leading export destination and primary source of remittances.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The nation&#8217;s reliance on imports also heightens its vulnerability to external shocks, Mr. Rivera added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cStrong consumer spending driven by improved employment and remittance inflows may lead to demand-pull inflation, along with the resurgence in tourism which could further boost inflation from the services sector,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Nonetheless, Mr. Tsang observed that the BSP\u2019s risk-adjusted inflation forecasts would continue to align within its 2-4% target range. When considering risk factors and scenarios, the BSP still predicts inflation settling within the target range, with a risk-adjusted forecast of 3.2% for 2024, 3.4% for 2025, and 3.7% for 2026.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cDespite these risks, if global oil prices stabilize and domestic food supply issues are addressed, inflation could remain within the BSP\u2019s 2-4% healthy target bracket. However, managing supply-side pressures will be crucial,\u201d Mr. Rivera remarked.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cInflation may still stay within target, providing sufficient allowance for the BSP to maintain its easing cycle, facilitating economic growth, particularly if the government is ready to confront these identified risks,\u201d Mr. Asuncion concluded.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><b>FURTHER MONETARY EASING<br \/>\n<\/b>The central bank has the capacity to proceed with its policy relaxation amidst expectations of inflation remaining on target, analysts asserted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cWith inflation projected to remain within target, the BSP will likely persist with its rate-cutting trend,\u201d Mr. Asuncion remarked.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Mr. Tsang indicated that the speed of the BSP&#8217;s rate-reduction cycle will probably be \u201cgradual and contingent on data.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cIn recent years, a vigorous monetary policy tightening during 2022 and 2023 that raised the policy rate to a 17-year peak, combined with the government&#8217;s direct interventions, has played a role in bringing headline inflation back to within the BSP\u2019s inflation target of 2\u20134%,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">In 2024, the Monetary Board decreased the target reverse repurchase (RRP) rate by 75 basis points (bps) with a 25-bp reduction during each of its August, October, and December meetings, lowering its policy rate to 5.75%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cFrom our perspective, there is<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cspace to progressively modify the policy rate to a less stringent position considering decreased inflation,\u201d Mr. Tsang remarked.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Mr. Krustins mentioned that the central bank \u201cmight still manage to implement some additional rate reductions, but the pace is expected to be slower due to the external risks facing the Philippine economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cIn light of the measured conduct of the BSP in previous years, monetary policy in 2025 might persist in taking a cautious stance during the initial half of the year, vigilantly observing both inflation and external factors,\u201d Mr. Rivera remarked.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Mr. Krustins anticipates the BSP will lower rates by 100 bps, while Mr. Asuncion predicts a total reduction of 75 bps in 2025.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cIf inflation continues to moderate and global financial circumstances enhance, the BSP could potentially decrease policy rates further by an additional 25 bps to 50 bps by the end of 2025, possibly bringing the benchmark rate nearer to 5%,\u201d stated Mr. Rivera.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s3\">BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. indicated that implementing cuts amounting to up to 100 bps in 2025 might be \u201cexcessive,\u201d but clarified that they are \u201cneither excessively dovish nor excessively hawkish.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">He also suggested the likelihood of executing a rate reduction during the first policy meeting of the Monetary Board in 2025.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Economic expansion will also be a crucial factor in the central bank\u2019s policy orientation, according to Mr. Asuncion.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe BSP will assess how the economy performs in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2025 to determine if the economic performance warrants additional rate easing,\u201d he elaborated.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The Philippine economy experienced a growth rate of 5.2% in the third quarter of 2024, marking the slowest growth in five quarters.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Conversely, elements that could disrupt the BSP\u2019s easing trajectory include a strengthening dollar and the speed of the US Federal Reserve\u2019s easing measures, analysts noted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cThe primary risk factor currently would be further strengthening of the dollar, potentially stemming from the imposition of tariffs by the new US administration,\u201d explained Mr. Krustins.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cHowever, risks are more inclined towards gradual easing. We observe that the interest rate differential between the US and the Philippines is narrower now compared to historical standards,\u201d he further noted.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Mr. Rivera mentioned that a robust dollar or unexpectedly high Fed rates \u201ccould compel the BSP to sustain a more neutral position to prevent capital outflows and depreciation of the peso.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">The Fed initiated its easing cycle in September 2024 with a significant 50-bp reduction and followed it up with two 25-bp cuts in its November and December sessions, lowering its target rate to 4.25%-4.5%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Nonetheless, the US central bank has indicated a potential for slower easing this year amidst inflation apprehensions, with Mr. Trump\u2019s proposed tariffs likely to elevate prices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\"><span class=\"s3\">Further easing by the BSP is also \u201ccomplicated by high global or domestic prices that may necessitate the BSP to maintain rates steady or even pause the easing cycle,\u201d Mr. Rivera added.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cWhat can derail monetary easing is the belief that all inflation risks must be entirely mitigated (which is unrealistic), and that high interest rates are the remedy to price shocks, which generally influence supply instead of demand,\u201d articulated Mr. Villanueva.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">Holding the economy \u201chostage\u201d to elevated interest rates that might suppress demand due to risks \u201cdoes not appear to be a sensible position,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cShocks are inherently unpredictable in both their timing and consequences. The most effective method to handle them is to address them when they arise and enhance the economy\u2019s resilience for such occurrences,\u201d Mr. Villanueva proposed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u201cPreparation is achieved not through high rates but via strategies that enhance market efficiency such as diversifying supply sources, readiness to modify tariffs and fees, and temporary cash assistance.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bworldonline.com\/top-stories\/2025\/01\/03\/644508\/within-target-inflation-to-keep-bsp-on-easing-path\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Correspondent PHILIPPINE INFLATION is anticipated to stay within the target for 2025, experts reported, paving the path for the central bank to persist with its easing trend. \u201cLooking forward, inflation is likely to be restrained, reflecting the easing in global commodity rates, along with regulatory actions such as tariff<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6932,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[714],"class_list":["post-6931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy-and-markets","tag-return-a-list-of-comma-separated-tags-from-this-title-within-target-inflation-to-keep-bsp-on-easing-path"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Targeted Inflation Sustains BSP&#039;s Easing Strategy - WSJ-Crypto<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/04\/targeted-inflation-sustains-bsps-easing-strategy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Targeted Inflation Sustains BSP&#039;s Easing Strategy - WSJ-Crypto\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Luisa Maria Jacinta C. 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Jocson, Correspondent PHILIPPINE INFLATION is anticipated to stay within the target for 2025, experts reported, paving the path for the central bank to persist with its easing trend. \u201cLooking forward, inflation is likely to be restrained, reflecting the easing in global commodity rates, along with regulatory actions such as tariff","og_url":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/04\/targeted-inflation-sustains-bsps-easing-strategy\/","og_site_name":"WSJ-Crypto","article_published_time":"2025-01-04T07:01:27+00:00","og_image":[{"width":300,"height":121,"url":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Outlook-2025-300x121.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"wsjcrypto","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scritto da":"wsjcrypto","Tempo di lettura stimato":"8 minuti"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/04\/targeted-inflation-sustains-bsps-easing-strategy\/","url":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/04\/targeted-inflation-sustains-bsps-easing-strategy\/","name":"Targeted Inflation Sustains BSP's Easing Strategy - 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