<\/a>This would also signify the third consecutive meeting where the central bank will lower rates since it initiated its easing process in August with a 25-bp reduction. It further decreased borrowing expenses by another 25 bps in October.<\/span><\/p>\nConversely, one analyst anticipates the central bank to decrease by 50 bps, while two analysts perceive the BSP keeping policy rates stable on Thursday.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe now project the BSP to cut the RRP rate by 25 bps at their Dec. 19 policy gathering,\u201d Bank of the Philippine Islands Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri, Jr. stated.<\/p>\n
\u201cAlthough a pause (or skip) remains feasible, recent economic data and external occurrences have converged in favor of monetary easing,\u201d he further mentioned.<\/p>\n
Analysts ascribed the anticipated further rate cut to diminishing inflation and disappointing third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data.<\/p>\n
\u201cMy expectation is for the BSP to reduce by 25 bps to 5.75% next week. Considerations for this choice include GDP growth and inflation trends and outlook,\u201d Security Bank Vice-President and Research Division Head Angelo B. Taningco commented.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe foresee BSP to lower the policy rate by 25 bps to 5.75% as the recent inflation data remains well within its target, and the outlook stays favorable,\u201d Nomura Global Markets Research analyst Euben Paracuelles remarked.<\/p>\n
Headline inflation recorded at 2.5% in November, pulling the 11-month mean to 3.2%. This is still comfortably within the BSP\u2019s 2-4% target range.<\/p>\n
The central bank anticipates inflation to settle at 3.1% this year.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe believe it is an opportune moment for the BSP to decrease another 25 bps this December. Inflation staying within the BSP\u2019s target is one of the primary reasons we think they will act to cut,\u201d Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc., asserted.<\/p>\n
Mr. Neri indicated that the inflation forecast for next year also bolsters the argument for a rate reduction.<\/p>\n
For the upcoming year, the BSP estimates inflation to average 3.2%, still within the target.<\/p>\n
\u201cRecent inflation figures have resided at the lower end of the BSP\u2019s 2-4% target range, and we project that inflation will consistently stay within the target ahead,\u201d Chinabank Research noted.<\/p>\n
SLOWING GROWTH
\n<\/b>Weaker-than-anticipated economic performance may also trigger additional easing, analysts indicated.<\/p>\n
Chinabank Research mentioned that the BSP might be encouraged to further ease policy to \u201cprovide extra support to the economy, especially regarding investments.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cMembers are likely to be swayed to ease further in light of the disappointing third-quarter GDP figure, which we accurately expected would fall short of market hopes,\u201d Pantheon Chief Emerging Asia Economist Miguel Chanco highlighted.<\/p>\n
The Philippine economy significantly slowed to 5.2% in the third quarter from 6.4% in the previous quarter and 6% a year earlier.<\/p>\n
Economic growth averaged 5.8% in the initial nine months, below the government\u2019s revised target of 6-6.5% for the year.<\/p>\n
\u201cRecent data on Philippine economic activity have not met the expectations of both government and analysts,\u201d Mr. Neri expressed.<\/p>\n
\u201cTherefore, while numerous other variables have held back economic performance since the pandemic, pressure on government officials to implement a rate cut continues to escalate, especially in light of the upcoming midterm elections,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
Predictions regarding the US Federal Reserve\u2019s ongoing easing cycle will also create more opportunities for the BSP\u2019s own rate cuts.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf the US Fed refrains from delivering its own 25 bps (cut), we anticipate that the BSP will be even more inclined to decrease key interest rates,\u201d Mr. Asuncion stated.<\/p>\n
Trader expectations for a cut during the US central bank\u2019s Dec. 17-18 meeting rest at nearly 97%, as reported by CME\u2019s FedWatch Tool, according to Reuters.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe latest US inflation update reinforced the anticipation of a 25-bp rate reduction from the Fed (this) week,\u201d Chinabank Research stated. <\/span><\/p>\n\u201cIf this materializes, it would enable the BSP to reduce rates again without exerting additional downward pressure on the peso, since its interest rate differential with the Fed would remain at a favorable 125 bps,\u201d it added.<\/p>\n
WEAK PESO
\n<\/b>The peso may also play a role in the central bank\u2019s forthcoming monetary policy decision.<\/p>\n
\u201cRegarding external factors, the relatively stable performance of the peso against the US dollar in recent weeks may lessen concerns surrounding the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on overall price behavior,\u201d Mr. Neri stated.<\/p>\n
Oikonomia Advisory & Research, Inc. economist Reinielle Matt Erece noted that the BSP will likely target a reduction of 25 bps as \u201cany more significant cut could lead to a faster depreciation of the peso against the dollar, especially if the Fed maintains its policy rate.\u201d<\/p>\n
The peso concluded at P58.47 per dollar on Friday, diminishing by 23 centavos from its P58.24 close on Thursday.<\/p>\n
Last month, the peso dipped to a record-low P59-per-dollar twice.<\/p>\n
Moody\u2019s Analytics economist Sarah Tan remarked that a weak peso could postpone the BSP\u2019s rate-cutting cycle.<\/p>\n
\u201cNonetheless, policy easing still appears plausible as it would bolster private consumption, the primary engine of economic growth,\u201d she included.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Jonathan L. Ravelas, senior adviser at professional services firm Reyes Tacandong & Co., opined there is potential for the central bank to cut rates by 50 bps.<\/span><\/p>\n\u201cWith inflation at 2.5% in November, year-to-date at 3.2%, well within the BSP\u2019s 2-4% target, they can reduce by 50 bps to promote growth following a slowdown in the third quarter,\u201d he remarked.<\/span><\/p>\n\u201cThis would help ensure growth of at least 6.3%-6.5%. Concerns regarding a weakening currency due to rate cuts will improve the nation\u2019s competitiveness, which will enhance tourism, manufacturing support, business processes outsourcing companies, and remittances from overseas Filipino workers,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
Mr. Ravelas cautioned that it \u201cmight be challenging to cut rates next year as US President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office.\u201d<\/p>\n
Conversely, some analysts foresee the possibility of a policy hold on Thursday.<\/p>\n
Ser Percival K. Pe\u00f1a-Reyes, director of the Ateneo de Manila University Center for Economic Research and Development, stated the BSP will likely halt its easing cycle and keep its policy rate stable.<\/span><\/p>\n\u201cI predict that the Monetary Board will retain its current policy rate. This is influenced by various factors such as fluctuating oil prices, electricity costs, and the depreciating value of the local currency against the dollar,\u201d Emmanuel J. Lopez, professorial lecturer at the University of Santo Tomas Graduate School, commented.<\/span><\/p>\n\u201cDespite the deceleration in inflation, consumer prices remain volatile due to holiday demand, pushing prices upward,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
2025 OUTLOOK
\n<\/b>Similarly, analysts anticipate the BSP to persist in reducing rates next year.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor 2025, we project a total reduction of 100 bps likely to be distributed quarterly,\u201d Patrick M. Ella, economist at Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp., mentioned.<\/p>\n
In a report, Capital Economics expressed its expectation for 100 bps of cuts in 2025 since growth is likely to temper and inflation is expected to remain subdued. This would lower the policy rate to 4.75% by the end of 2025.<\/p>\n
This aligns with indications from BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr., who mentioned that the Monetary Board can implement rate cuts in the 100-bp range next year.<\/p>\n
However, he indicated that the BSP may not necessarily reduce at each gathering or every quarter.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe BSP may implement further rate cuts in 2025, as local economic data may continue to be supportive,\u201d Mr. Neri stated.<\/p>\n
On the contrary, he noted that external shocks could \u201climit the degree of rate reductions.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIf President Donald Trump follows through on his campaign promises regarding significant tariffs and deportation, heightened US inflation could lead to slower US rate cuts, if not outright policy reversals,\u201d Mr. Neri expressed.<\/p>\n
Mr. Ella indicated a \u201cslim chance\u201d that the BSP will pause rate cuts if the Fed also chooses to halt its easing policy.<\/p>\n
\u201cHowever, at this juncture, we view this as a low-probability scenario for the BSP, perhaps a 10% chance of occurring, but this outlook may pivot with key developments and if official BSP communications signal otherwise,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
\n
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