{"id":17778,"date":"2025-11-08T02:46:50","date_gmt":"2025-11-08T01:46:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/?p=17778"},"modified":"2025-11-08T02:46:50","modified_gmt":"2025-11-08T01:46:50","slug":"is-this-the-riskiest-bitcoin-surge-ever-ray-dalio-sounds-the-alarm-on-a-possible-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/08\/is-this-the-riskiest-bitcoin-surge-ever-ray-dalio-sounds-the-alarm-on-a-possible-bubble\/","title":{"rendered":"Is This the Riskiest Bitcoin Surge Ever? Ray Dalio Sounds the Alarm on a Possible &#8216;Bubble&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> &#8220;`html<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"ftwp-postcontent\">\n<p>Ray Dalio has fired a warning shot across the macro horizon, suggesting that the Federal Reserve\u2019s recent balance-sheet guidance threatens \u201cstimulating into a bubble\u201d instead of stabilizing a weakening economy\u2014an inversion of the traditional post-crisis QE playbook with potentially monumental consequences for hard assets, including Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>In a <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/RayDalio\/status\/1986167253453213789\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">message<\/a> titled \u201cStimulating Into a Bubble,\u201d Dalio presents the Fed\u2019s shift\u2014terminating quantitative tightening and indicating that reserves will need to start increasing again\u2014as the next milestone in the latter phase of the Big Debt Cycle. \u201cDid you notice that the Fed\u2019s statement that it will halt QT and commence QE?\u201d he wrote, warning that, even if termed as a technical adjustment, it is \u201can easing maneuver\u2026 to monitor the advancement of the Big Debt Cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>If balance-sheet expansion aligns with rate reductions and ongoing fiscal deficits, Dalio cautions, markets will be facing a \u201cclassic monetary and fiscal interplay between the Fed and the Treasury to monetize government debt.\u201d He emphasizes that, in such a scenario\u2014high equity values, narrow credit spreads, low unemployment, above-target inflation, and an AI-driven frenzy\u2014\u201cit will seem to me like the Fed is stimulating into a bubble.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><h2 class=\"jeg_block_title\"><span>Related Reading<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p>The policy backdrop for Dalio\u2019s caution is not fictional. Following months of tightening liquidity and diminishing bank reserves, the Fed has declared it will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/news\/crypto-bull-run-ahead-powell-telegraphed-end-qt\/\" target=\"_blank\">terminate balance-sheet runoff (QT)<\/a>. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that, within the ample-reserves structure, the central bank will at some point need to increase reserves again: \u201cAt a certain time, you\u2019ll want reserves to gradually grow to keep pace with the banking system&#8217;s size and the economy&#8217;s scale. So we\u2019ll be augmenting reserves at some point,\u201d he stated during his October 29 press conference.<\/p>\n<p>Officials and numerous sell-side desks have highlighted that reserve management need not imply a return to crisis-era QE. The practical similarity: if the Fed is once more a steady net purchaser of Treasuries to sustain \u201cample\u201d reserves as deficits linger, the market experience can echo <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/news\/crypto-isnt-topping-yet-arthur-hayes-stealth-qe\/\" target=\"_blank\">QE even without the designation.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>While Dalio excludes Bitcoin from his post, the mechanisms are familiar to Bitcoin investors. He argues that when central banks purchase bonds and lower real yields, \u201cwhat occurs next depends on where the liquidity flows.\u201d If it remains within financial assets, \u201cmultiples increase, risk spreads tighten, and gold ascends,\u201d resulting in \u201cfinancial asset inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><h2 class=\"jeg_block_title\"><span>Related Reading<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p>If it infiltrates goods and services, inflation increases and real returns may diminish. Crucially for cross-asset allocation, Dalio articulates relative returns explicitly: with gold yielding 0% and, say, a 10-year Treasury yielding ~4%, gold outperforms if its price appreciation is anticipated to surpass that rate, particularly as inflation expectations rise and the currency\u2019s purchasing power declines. In that landscape, \u201cthe more money and credit central banks are generating, the higher I expect the inflation rate to be, and the less I favor bonds relative to gold.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"ftoc-heading-1\" class=\"ftwp-heading\">What This Implies For Bitcoin<\/h2>\n<p>Commentators swiftly interpreted those mechanisms for Bitcoin. \u201cFed resumes QE \u2192 more liquidity \u2192 real interest rates decline,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/nicrypto\/status\/1986470289270861994\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">noted<\/a> Coin Bureau CEO Nick Puckrin. \u201cDecreasing real rates \u2192 bonds &amp; cash turn unattractive \u2192 capital chases risk and hard assets\u2026 Inflation risk escalates \u2192 investors hedge with gold, commodities, and digital stores of value.\u201d He emphasized Dalio\u2019s own terminology\u2014\u201cgold rises so there is financial asset inflation,\u201d and QE \u201clowers real yields and increases P\/E multiples\u201d\u2014before concluding: \u201cBitcoin flourishes in exactly that environment\u2026 it\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/news\/blackrock-ceo-larry-fink-says-bitcoin-is-digital-gold-so-whats-the-digital-silver\/\" target=\"_blank\">digital gold<\/a> on steroids.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Millionaire investor Thomas Kralow <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/TKralow\/status\/1986431521235083764\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">highlighted<\/a> the timing risk embedded in Dalio\u2019s framework: this would not be \u201cstimulus into a recession\u201d but \u201cstimulus into a frenzy.\u201d In his words, liquidity would \u201cinundate already overheated markets\u2026 stocks surge, gold rallies, and crypto\u2026 goes vertical,\u201d with the typical risk-on sequence across the crypto spectrum. His caveat reflects Dalio\u2019s late-cycle caution: a liquidity melt-up now, then\u2014on a longer horizon\u2014re-acceleration of inflation, a forced policy reversal, and a dramatic bubble burst.<\/p>\n<p>For Bitcoin, the short-term transmission is straightforward. Lower real yields and increasing liquidity historically coincide with enhanced performance of long-duration, high-beta, and scarcity narratives; akin to 1999-style melt-ups and late-cycle surges in hard assets, including gold\u2014and, by extension, BTC as a \u201cdigital gold\u201d alternative.<\/p>\n<p>However, the medium-to-long-term tension remains unresolved: if the same easing ignites renewed inflation pressure, the exit\u2014the point at which policy must tighten into the bubble\u2014becomes the regime shift Dalio is signaling.<br \/>Dalio\u2019s conclusion is not a trading signal but a regime alert. \u201cWhether this evolves into a full and traditional stimulative QE (with significant net purchases) remains to be seen,\u201d he writes. If the Fed is indeed easing into a bubble, Bitcoin may gain on the ascent\u2014but that trajectory, according to Dalio\u2019s own schema, culminates with impact.<\/p>\n<p>At press time, Bitcoin traded at $99,717.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_850801\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-850801\" style=\"width: 1024px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-850801\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bitcoin drops below $100,000, 1-day chart | Source:<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/4lLrm77f\/\" target=\"_blank\"> BTCUSDT on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/bitcoin-news\/most-dangerous-bitcoin-boom-ray-dalio\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n&#8220;`<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;`html Ray Dalio has fired a warning shot across the macro horizon, suggesting that the Federal Reserve\u2019s recent balance-sheet guidance threatens \u201cstimulating into a bubble\u201d instead of stabilizing a weakening economy\u2014an inversion of the traditional post-crisis QE playbook with potentially monumental consequences for hard assets, including Bitcoin. In a message titled \u201cStimulating Into a Bubble,\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":17779,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[4169],"class_list":{"0":"post-17778","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bitcoin","8":"tag-gptreturn-a-list-of-comma-separated-tags-from-this-title-most-dangerous-bitcoin-boom-yet-ray-dalio-warns-of-bubble-gpt"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is This the Riskiest Bitcoin Surge Ever? 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