{"id":17301,"date":"2025-10-24T08:46:34","date_gmt":"2025-10-24T06:46:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/?p=17301"},"modified":"2025-10-24T08:46:34","modified_gmt":"2025-10-24T06:46:34","slug":"sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/","title":{"rendered":"SBF Pardon Predictions Surge to 12% on Polymarket"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> &#8220;`html<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-v-a8d5a416=\"\">\n<p>Polymarket gamblers have now predicted a 12% likelihood that former FTX head Sam Bankman-Fried will receive a pardon this year, following Binance CEO Changpeng \u201cCZ\u201d Zhao being exempted from penalties this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket <a data-ct-non-breakable=\"null\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/who-will-trump-pardon-in-2025?tid=1761273390663\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">probabilities<\/a> for \u201cWho will Trump pardon in 2025\u201d witnessed SBF\u2019s chances increase from 5.6% to 12% within 12 hours, with over $6.5 million in wagers placed in that market, including $302,090 for the convicted crypto swindler.<\/p>\n<p>Another <a data-ct-non-breakable=\"null\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/sbf-released-from-custody-in-2025\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">market<\/a> regarding whether SBF will be \u201cReleased from custody in 2025\u201d climbed from 4.3% to 19.1% before retracting to 15.5%. <\/p>\n<p>While SBF has submitted an appeal to lessen his 25-year sentence, it seems improbable that there would be any major advancements before the end of the year, indicating a pardon from Trump might be his only viable route to release prior to January.<\/p>\n<figure><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Polymarket probabilities of SBF being released from custody in 2025. Source: <\/em><a data-ct-non-breakable=\"null\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/sbf-released-from-custody-in-2025\" rel=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/sbf-released-from-custody-in-2025\" target=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/sbf-released-from-custody-in-2025\" title=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/sbf-released-from-custody-in-2025\"><em>Polymarket<\/em><\/a><br \/><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Nonetheless, <a data-ct-non-breakable=\"null\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/trump-pardons-binance-founder-cz\">CZ\u2019s pardon<\/a> has inevitably ignited discussions on whether SBF merits comparable consideration, with numerous voices arguing that he should not.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>Four months vs. 25 years isn\u2019t analogous, industry experts assert<\/h2>\n<p>Many evaluated the gravity of their offenses, emphasizing that CZ breached US Anti-Money Laundering regulations by permitting unlawful funds to circulate through Binance, whereas SBF was <a data-ct-non-breakable=\"null\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/ftx-founder-sam-bankman-fried-found-guilty-on-all-charges?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">convicted of fraud <\/a>and conspiracy to commit money laundering for <a data-ct-non-breakable=\"null\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/ftx-sues-sam-bankman-fried-other-execs-recoup-one-billion?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">misusing several billion dollars<\/a> in customer assets.<\/p>\n<p><template data-ct-widget=\"buzzsprout\" data-buzzsprout-podcast-id=\"2040516\" data-buzzsprout-episode-id=\"17793750\"\/><\/p>\n<p>CZ received a four-month sentence, while SBF was dealt a <a data-ct-non-breakable=\"null\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/sam-bankman-fried-sentenced-years-prison-hold?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">25-year prison term <\/a>last year.<\/p>\n<p>Crypto attorney Jake Chervinsky <a data-ct-non-breakable=\"null\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/jchervinsky\/status\/1981458412962463771\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">stated<\/a> he would be \u201ctruly astonished\u201d if the Trump administration pardoned SBF, highlighting that SBF was a \u201cDemocratic mega-donor before FTX suddenly collapsed in November 2022.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHis name is part punchline, part curse word in DC. Not a single serious individual desires this.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-10\/019a1454-46fb-7c18-8d2a-9bfd5d842c7a\" title=\"\"\/><figcaption style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Source: <\/em><a data-ct-non-breakable=\"null\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/RyanSAdams\/status\/1981383636814303516\" rel=\"https:\/\/x.com\/RyanSAdams\/status\/1981383636814303516\" target=\"https:\/\/x.com\/RyanSAdams\/status\/1981383636814303516\" title=\"https:\/\/x.com\/RyanSAdams\/status\/1981383636814303516\"><em>Ryan Sean Adams<\/em><\/a><br \/><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><em><strong>Related: <\/strong><\/em><a data-ct-non-breakable=\"null\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/trump-pardons-binance-founder-cz-crypto-community-support\"><em><strong>Trump on CZ pardon: I\u2019m told \u2018what he did is not even a crime\u2019<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Sasha Hodder, the founder of the crypto law firm Hodder Law, <a data-ct-non-breakable=\"null\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/sashahodler\/status\/1981399497700679779\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">mentioned<\/a> that the gravity of CZ\u2019s offense was nowhere close to the magnitude of SBF\u2019s or former Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cContrary to SBF or Do Kwon, CZ wasn\u2019t charged with purloining user funds or deceiving customers. Binance functioned as a legitimate exchange. Withdrawals consistently operated. His \u2018offense\u2019 was regulatory, not immoral in a broader sense.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In <a data-ct-non-breakable=\"null\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/trump-pardons-binance-founder-cz-crypto-community-support\">regards to the pardon<\/a>, Trump noted he was informed that what CZ did was \u201cnot even a crime\u201d and that he was \u201ctargeted by the Biden administration.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>CZ is a prominent supporter of the Trump family\u2019s World Liberty Financial crypto platform.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Magazine:<\/strong><\/em><a data-ct-non-breakable=\"null\" href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/magazine\/benjamin-wallace-mysterious-mr-nakamoto-review\/\"><em><strong> Mysterious Mr Nakamoto author: Finding Satoshi would hurt Bitcoin<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\" label=\"Subscription Form: Markets Outlook\"\/><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/sbf-pardon-odds-rise-12-percent-polymarket?utm_source=rss_feed&#038;utm_medium=rss_tag_regulation%3Fcb%3Ds3qzbs%26_nocache%3D1761288041846%26r%3Ds3qzbs&#038;utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n&#8220;`<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;`html Polymarket gamblers have now predicted a 12% likelihood that former FTX head Sam Bankman-Fried will receive a pardon this year, following Binance CEO Changpeng \u201cCZ\u201d Zhao being exempted from penalties this week.\u00a0 Polymarket probabilities for \u201cWho will Trump pardon in 2025\u201d witnessed SBF\u2019s chances increase from 5.6% to 12% within 12 hours, with over<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":17302,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[4008],"class_list":{"0":"post-17301","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy-and-markets","8":"tag-return-a-list-of-comma-separated-tags-from-this-title-chances-of-sbf-pardon-rockets-to-12-on-polymarket"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>SBF Pardon Predictions Surge to 12% on Polymarket - WSJ-Crypto<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"SBF Pardon Predictions Surge to 12% on Polymarket - WSJ-Crypto\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&#8220;`html Polymarket gamblers have now predicted a 12% likelihood that former FTX head Sam Bankman-Fried will receive a pardon this year, following Binance CEO Changpeng \u201cCZ\u201d Zhao being exempted from penalties this week.\u00a0 Polymarket probabilities for \u201cWho will Trump pardon in 2025\u201d witnessed SBF\u2019s chances increase from 5.6% to 12% within 12 hours, with over\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WSJ-Crypto\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-10-24T06:46:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/01953aeb-f780-7510-9d12-aea2a578ca79.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"799\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"wsjcrypto\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Scritto da\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"wsjcrypto\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tempo di lettura stimato\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minuti\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/\",\"name\":\"SBF Pardon Predictions Surge to 12% on Polymarket - WSJ-Crypto\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/01953aeb-f780-7510-9d12-aea2a578ca79.jpeg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-10-24T06:46:34+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/#\/schema\/person\/88a93723b30416db1a352d5a0096c4a7\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"it-IT\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"it-IT\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/01953aeb-f780-7510-9d12-aea2a578ca79.jpeg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/01953aeb-f780-7510-9d12-aea2a578ca79.jpeg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":799},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"SBF Pardon Predictions Surge to 12% on Polymarket\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/\",\"name\":\"WSJ-Crypto\",\"description\":\"Just Another Crypto News Website\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"it-IT\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/#\/schema\/person\/88a93723b30416db1a352d5a0096c4a7\",\"name\":\"wsjcrypto\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"it-IT\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/86fe8af82ea089646d6639ca2f87e0243d8688d957bd8e3ec22ec3c457cc16d4?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/86fe8af82ea089646d6639ca2f87e0243d8688d957bd8e3ec22ec3c457cc16d4?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"wsjcrypto\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/author\/wsjcrypto\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"SBF Pardon Predictions Surge to 12% on Polymarket - WSJ-Crypto","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/","og_locale":"it_IT","og_type":"article","og_title":"SBF Pardon Predictions Surge to 12% on Polymarket - WSJ-Crypto","og_description":"&#8220;`html Polymarket gamblers have now predicted a 12% likelihood that former FTX head Sam Bankman-Fried will receive a pardon this year, following Binance CEO Changpeng \u201cCZ\u201d Zhao being exempted from penalties this week.\u00a0 Polymarket probabilities for \u201cWho will Trump pardon in 2025\u201d witnessed SBF\u2019s chances increase from 5.6% to 12% within 12 hours, with over","og_url":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/","og_site_name":"WSJ-Crypto","article_published_time":"2025-10-24T06:46:34+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":799,"url":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/01953aeb-f780-7510-9d12-aea2a578ca79.jpeg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"wsjcrypto","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Scritto da":"wsjcrypto","Tempo di lettura stimato":"2 minuti"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/","url":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/","name":"SBF Pardon Predictions Surge to 12% on Polymarket - WSJ-Crypto","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/01953aeb-f780-7510-9d12-aea2a578ca79.jpeg","datePublished":"2025-10-24T06:46:34+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/#\/schema\/person\/88a93723b30416db1a352d5a0096c4a7"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"it-IT","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"it-IT","@id":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/01953aeb-f780-7510-9d12-aea2a578ca79.jpeg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/01953aeb-f780-7510-9d12-aea2a578ca79.jpeg","width":1200,"height":799},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/24\/sbf-pardon-predictions-surge-to-12-on-polymarket\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"SBF Pardon Predictions Surge to 12% on Polymarket"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/","name":"WSJ-Crypto","description":"Just Another Crypto News Website","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"it-IT"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/#\/schema\/person\/88a93723b30416db1a352d5a0096c4a7","name":"wsjcrypto","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"it-IT","@id":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/86fe8af82ea089646d6639ca2f87e0243d8688d957bd8e3ec22ec3c457cc16d4?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/86fe8af82ea089646d6639ca2f87e0243d8688d957bd8e3ec22ec3c457cc16d4?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"wsjcrypto"},"url":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/author\/wsjcrypto\/"}]}},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17301","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17301"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17301\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17304,"href":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17301\/revisions\/17304"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17302"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17301"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17301"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17301"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}