{"id":16176,"date":"2025-09-19T06:04:42","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T04:04:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/?p=16176"},"modified":"2025-09-19T06:04:42","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T04:04:42","slug":"bitcoin-could-face-a-potential-70-drop-warns-crypto-analyst","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/19\/bitcoin-could-face-a-potential-70-drop-warns-crypto-analyst\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Could Face a Potential 70% Drop, Warns Crypto Analyst"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Crypto participants who have been unable to engage with Bitcoin this year might still find another opportunity to gather assets, as a crypto expert anticipates that Bitcoin could plummet by as much as 70% in the forthcoming bear market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, crypto experts are divided on the future trajectory of Bitcoin. Some believe a bear market is still a long way off, while others suggest it may arrive much sooner.<\/p>\n

\u201cI would estimate perhaps a 70% downturn from whichever the peak price ends up,\u201d Cowen stated<\/a> to Kyle Chasse in an interview released on Thursday, mentioning that past cycle bear markets recorded Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) reductions of 94%, 87%, and approximately 77%.<\/p>\n

\u201cDoes it have to occur? No, but you know, historical trends would at least advise us to consider that it might.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This would mark a significant fall from $250K Bitcoin<\/h2>\n

With certain Bitcoin proponents, such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, forecasting values as high as $250,000 by year-end, a 70% decline would reduce it to about $75,000.<\/p>\n

Cowen remarked, \u201cIf we begin to surge in Q4 for me, it\u2019ll just be straightforward like, okay, this time isn\u2019t unique, I\u2019ll simply take profits back to stables.\u201d He noted that he might wait until mid-2026 to reinvest.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin is currently trading at $117,010 at the time of publication, up 3.41% over the previous 30 days, as per<\/a> CoinMarketCap.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin has increased by 88.35% in the past 12 months. Source: <\/em>CoinMarketCap<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Cowen indicated that market participants ought to anticipate another robust rally but not underestimate how swiftly it might peak.<\/p>\n

\u201cClearly, investors are optimistic we are going to consolidate and enter that final rally into the market cycle peak,\u201d he mentioned, adding that should be the baseline assumption.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut if that starts to occur, just remember the peak could happen at any moment, right? \u2026Everyone\u2019s going to be euphoric if we begin to see an upward move,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

ETH will surpass Bitcoin as the cycle concludes<\/h2>\n

In the meantime, Cowen also anticipates Ether (ETH<\/a>) will \u201cstruggle against\u201d Bitcoin for a few more weeks but ultimately excel as the cycle nears its conclusion.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cUp until the cycle wraps up, Ethereum will likely outperform from this moment until the end,\u201d Cowen remarked.<\/p>\n

\u201cI foresee weakness throughout October for ETH,\u201d he added. The ETH\/BTC ratio, which evaluates Ether\u2019s comparative strength to Bitcoin, is up 8.56% over the last 30 days, as indicated<\/a> by TradingView.<\/p>\n

Related:<\/strong><\/em> Altseason index reaches peak level this year: Here\u2019s what traders believe<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Some Bitcoin enthusiasts argue that Bitcoin\u2019s price will still adhere to its usual four-year cycle, while others remain uncertain.<\/p>\n

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan stated<\/a>, \u201cI anticipate 2026 will be a positive year.\u201d \u201cI broadly believe we\u2019re in for a favorable few years,\u201d Hougan added<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg recently mentioned<\/a>, \u201cI believe there is over a 50% probability Bitcoin will reach the 140 to 150 range this year before we encounter another bear market next year.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the meantime, Strategy executive chairman<\/a> Michael Saylor stated in June, \u201cWinter is not returning.\u201d<\/p>\n

Magazine: <\/strong><\/em>Meet the Ethereum and Polkadot co-founder who wasn\u2019t featured in Time Magazine<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n