{"id":15938,"date":"2025-09-11T23:33:42","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T21:33:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/?p=15938"},"modified":"2025-09-11T23:33:42","modified_gmt":"2025-09-11T21:33:42","slug":"the-sunset-on-paper-bitcoin-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/11\/the-sunset-on-paper-bitcoin-season\/","title":{"rendered":"The Sunset on Paper Bitcoin Season"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> &#8220;`html<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"nitro-lazy\">As summer transitions into fall in the northern hemisphere, the stonkcoiner vision of<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/markets\/preston-pysh-changed-bitcoin-treasuries\"> bitcoinizing finance<\/a> is swiftly evolving into a nightmare. The<a href=\"https:\/\/www.economicforces.xyz\/p\/paper-bitcoin-summer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> bitcoin paper summer<\/a>, characterized by issuing shares to oblivious financial markets at (extreme) overestimations to thus acquire bitcoin at a bargain, is concluding, not with a bang of triumph but with a rather underwhelming whimper.<\/p>\n<p>The bitcoin treasury aspiration was appealing; I even<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/bigread\/bitcoin-treasury-companies-how-to-think\"> candidly acknowledge<\/a> that it held <em>some<\/em> logic.<\/p>\n<p>For a brief duration, Wall Street<a href=\"https:\/\/stacker.news\/items\/984224\/r\/denlillaapan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> cheerfully indulged<\/a> the exuberance and fueled the flames. But ultimately, financial gravity is reasserting itself: We\u2019re all awakening from our summer romance with financial illusion, where items were exchanged for <em>more<\/em> than their actual worth. It\u2019s both remarkable and tragic to witness standard corporate finance regain its footing.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this year, our own David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc, the proprietor of Bitcoin Magazine,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=4vMQaNf5EPA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> informed Bitcoin for Corporations, another division of BTC Inc<\/a>, that \u201cif you can sell a dollar for more than a dollar, you make that trade all day long.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It turns out, that free-lunch tactic(!) wasn\u2019t actually free\u2026<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/markets\/bitcoin-asia-everything-upside-down-price\"> erasing investor capital<\/a> in the process has been a challenging journey to learn that lesson.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I absolutely dislike witnessing the stock price decline of course\u2014many of my closest friends and family are shareholders. But I can&#8217;t influence the market.<\/p>\n<p>What I can do is advocate for the best interest of shareholders and execute our strategy diligently. Together we\u2019ll construct a massive\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kEIokoUwev\">https:\/\/t.co\/kEIokoUwev<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 David Bailey\ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf7 $1.0mm\/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DavidFBailey\/status\/1963572707406352485?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">September 4, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><template data-nitro-marker-id=\"372de9843891598aa58675a785cc4349-1\"\/> <\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>When <em>you<\/em> \u2014 the retail bagholder \u2014 are purchasing a security instead of genuine bitcoin, you\u2019re generally doing so at a markup (e.g., an mNAV surpassing 1). Ironically, this is both demonstrably irrational \u2014 why purchase a dollar for more than a dollar\u2026? \u2014 <em>and<\/em> the<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/bigread\/the-bitcoin-treasury-companies-bubble\"> very force<\/a> that drives these bitcoin treasury firms.<\/p>\n<p>Those of us observing this with warranted skepticism presumed that the mNAVs would converge to approximately 1 via shares depreciating or remaining stable while bitcoin\u2019s fiat value escalated. Fate played a trick on us by <em>plummeting<\/em> the<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/markets\/bitcoin-price-falls-nobody-knows-why\"> bitcoin price instead<\/a>. Consequently, a significant number of these lofty, financial-alchemy monstrosities declined by much larger multiples.<\/p>\n<p>Bailey\u2019s own NAKA, for which Bitcoin Magazine offers certain marketing services, has been the most entertaining (and for many individuals around these parts, financially unfortunate). When NAKA announced a major,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.morningstar.com\/news\/accesswire\/1065981msn\/kindlymd-announces-5-billion-at-the-market-equity-offering-program\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> $5-billion initiative<\/a> of share issuance last month, the stock <em>dropped<\/em> downward about 30% on the announcement \u2014 and continued to decline subsequently, suffering a neat 70% drop from its initial surge around the<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/news\/david-bailey-and-bitcoin-native-holding-company-nakamoto-announce-merger-with-kindlymd-to-establish-bitcoin-treasury\"> declaration<\/a> of reverse-merging with KindlyMD; $NAKA has plummeted a staggering 85% from its peak in May, recently hitting a new low of $3.28.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>Market prices reflect reality, and the truth here at the twilight of treasury companies\u2019 fanciful delusion is that stuffing corporate balance sheets with retail-acquired equity and debt to procure bitcoin was no route to the promised land.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThe market price indicates whether you\u2019re correct or incorrect,\u201d noted Moshe Shen, managing director at APAC Wintermute Trading, on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=03pPjKqRUzY\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Day 1 of the recently concluded Bitcoin Asia<\/a> in Hong Kong. I suppose that reveals enough about the questionable future of Nakamoto and other bitcoin treasury organizations.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The bitcoin treasury enchantment has concluded<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The repetitive pump-and-dump cycle of issuing more shares for a bitcoin treasury approach no longer comes with a substantial surge to the share price; it declines, as reason and conventional corporate finance would predict. It doesn\u2019t matter<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/markets\/michael-saylors-strategy-bought-additional-bitcoin-irrespective-of-the-price\"> how many thousands of coins<\/a> Saylor\u2019s Strategy is acquiring, the price of MSTR <em>continues<\/em> to decrease, having provided a grand total of <em>zero<\/em> percent return to common shareholders since last November; Metaplanet, having recently surpassed 20,000 coins in<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/business\/metaplanets-president-lays-out-plan-to-acquire-210000-bitcoin-by-2027-at-shareholder-meeting\"> hyped-up<\/a>ii<a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/business\/metaplanet-raises-1-4-billion-to-expand-bitcoin-treasury-in-upsized-international-share-offering\"> celebrations<\/a> has witnessed its stock regress all the way back to levels prior to the onset of the paper bitcoin summer.<\/p>\n<p>In a recent article<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/ad063ed3-4c69-40e6-a478-40e0061d1b3c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> detailing the treasury phenomenon<\/a>, Nikou Asgari from the <em>Financial Times<\/em> remarked dismissively that, \u201cThe crypto-purchasing strategy largely depends on issuing shares or raising debt to acquire bitcoin and other tokens, hoping this spurs share price appreciation.\u201d Minimizing the point, she adds, \u201cSecuring capital becomes more challenging as company valuations decline, however.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>When the stock price drops, and the mNAV compresses toward 1, the free-money allure disappears. We\u2019ll discover if the numerous treasury companies in existence have (any?)<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/HodlMagoo\/status\/1964497253638492423?t=x1vt59T1n4MUUb4GD-sMxw&amp;s=19\"> viability<\/a> once the era of magical money-printing comes to an end.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Raising capital is not a sustainable business model. Try this, &#8220;Hi I am seeking to raise capital for my business. Oh, what is the business? Capital raising.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>There exists a rare, extinct type of business that required endless capital raising. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hVdHoEm699\">https:\/\/t.co\/hVdHoEm699<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Josh Man (@JoshMandell6) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JoshMandell6\/status\/1964491472788738121?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">September 7, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><template data-nitro-marker-id=\"372de9843891598aa58675a785cc4349-2\"\/> <\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>Even Tyler Evans of UTXO Management, another BTC Inc and Nakamoto-affiliated company, admitted as much to Asgari in that same <em>FT<\/em> piece: The market \u201cbecame irrationally over-inflated,\u201d and that the paper bitcoin summer \u201cmarked the apex for both excitement and for the number of firms initiating.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>At the conclusion of the paper bitcoin summer, we observe reality reestablishing itself, significantly recovering from the collective fantasy that market prices in the world\u2019s most liquid markets could deviate so far from mNAV trajectory.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a bold forecast: <strong>In a year\u2019s time, bitcoin treasury companies will be obsolete<\/strong>. Most of the lower-tiered ones won\u2019t endure and will instead relinquish the coins they so greedily and recklessly consumed. The ones with substantial advantages and adept management teams, like Strategy or Metaplanet, will survive, but will see their mNAV shrink to a sliver above zero, where they rightly belong.<\/p>\n<p>The paper bitcoin summer has concluded, and I personally couldn\u2019t be more thrilled to witness these nightmares return to the ethereal dreamlands from which they originated.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/markets\/the-end-of-paper-bitcoin-summer\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n&#8220;`<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;`html As summer transitions into fall in the northern hemisphere, the stonkcoiner vision of bitcoinizing finance is swiftly evolving into a nightmare. The bitcoin paper summer, characterized by issuing shares to oblivious financial markets at (extreme) overestimations to thus acquire bitcoin at a bargain, is concluding, not with a bang of triumph but with a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":15939,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[3580],"class_list":["post-15938","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin","tag-gptreturn-a-list-of-comma-separated-tags-from-this-title-the-end-of-paper-bitcoin-summer-gpt"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Sunset on Paper Bitcoin Season - WSJ-Crypto<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/11\/the-sunset-on-paper-bitcoin-season\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Sunset on Paper Bitcoin Season - WSJ-Crypto\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&#8220;`html As summer transitions into fall in the northern hemisphere, the stonkcoiner vision of bitcoinizing finance is swiftly evolving into a nightmare. 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