{"id":13379,"date":"2025-06-23T23:20:59","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T21:20:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/?p=13379"},"modified":"2025-06-23T23:20:59","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T21:20:59","slug":"is-the-dogecoin-downtrend-just-getting-started-expert-insights-on-future-targets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/23\/is-the-dogecoin-downtrend-just-getting-started-expert-insights-on-future-targets\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Dogecoin Downtrend Just Getting Started? Expert Insights on Future Targets"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The price of Dogecoin continues to decline, and crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) cautions that the worst may still be impending. Highlighting a previous bearish trend, Kevin pointed out over the weekend that Dogecoin\u2019s Head and Shoulders pattern\u2014spotted nearly two weeks ago\u2014is swiftly nearing its technical \u201cmeasured move\u201d target. However, he also indicated that the complete downside potential has yet to manifest.<\/p>\n

Is the Dogecoin Collapse Far From Complete?<\/h2>\n

\u201cI didn\u2019t indicate that we are there just yet,\u201d Kevin clarified in a follow-up post<\/a>, \u201cthe orange circle signifies a range of where the measured move might extend, with a specific measured move target at the .786 fib level of .119.\u201d<\/p>\n

This $0.119 mark coincides with a wider convergence of technical supports that are rapidly becoming critical for DOGE\u2019s formation. \u201cThe Head and Shoulders I highlighted in Dogecoin almost two weeks ago is nearing its measured move target area. Certain daily indicators are also beginning to reach triggering levels. Observing closely, along with BTC and USDT Dominance for additional confirmations,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

\"Dogecoin
Dogecoin inverse head and shoulders pattern | Source: X @Kev_Capital_TA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Kevin also underscored the significance of the weekly 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA), coupled with the macro .382 Fibonacci retracement and a long-term descending trendline.<\/p>\n

Further Reading<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

Collectively, these levels constitute what he referred to as the \u201cmust-hold\u201d area, specifically between $0.1434 and $0.1265. A sustained failure below that range would likely affirm a macro bearish transition for the meme asset.<\/p>\n

What To Watch For Now<\/h2>\n

When zooming out, Kevin perceives Dogecoin\u2019s destiny as intricately linked to Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market, which he notes is currently at its weakest point in years. \u201cThus far in 2025, altcoins have been much more bearish than in 2024 and 2023,\u201d he remarked. \u201cThis has been the most challenging year for Alts since the bear market of 2022.\u201d The remarkable strength of Bitcoin\u2019s dominance has been a pivotal factor in this trend.<\/p>\n

That dominance<\/a>, Kevin contends, is not a fleeting spike. \u201cNew peaks for BTC Dominance arise from restrictive monetary policy and an unpredictable geopolitical landscape,\u201d he wrote, referencing global macro conditions such as ongoing quantitative tightening (QT). He has consistently warned that without a shift in central bank policy, any discussions regarding a genuine \u201caltseason\u201d are premature.<\/p>\n

Further Reading<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ve been stating since late 2023, early 2024\u2014when AI coins were surging and people believed it was #Altseason\u2014that until QT concludes and the terminal rate decreases, you will not witness genuine sustainable altcoin outperformance<\/a>. This assertion remains valid.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Bitcoin dominance | Source: X @Kev_Capital_TA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

His caution extends well beyond Dogecoin. In previous observations, Kevin pinpointed crucial danger areas for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which he argues must be reclaimed to avert broader market decline. \u201cAs long as BTC cannot surpass the $106.8K mark and demonstrate real follow-through on 3D-1W time frames, then the market is in significant peril,\u201d he wrote. \u201cThe same applies to ETH not being able to break the $2700-2800 range.\u201d
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level.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Dogecoin investors, the indication is unmistakable. The meme coin\u2019s destiny depends not solely on its own technical condition, but also on a broader macro and intermarket framework that continues to be delicate. As long as Bitcoin finds it challenging to maintain an upward position above vital breakout thresholds and US monetary conditions<\/a> remain restrictive, the likelihood of a more significant Dogecoin pullback stays elevated.<\/p>\n

The focus will be on whether DOGE can secure a position above the $0.1265 mark in the upcoming days and weeks. A breach of that range, particularly alongside renewed Bitcoin weakness, could signal the onset of a more profound and distressing chapter for the once-adored meme coin.<\/p>\n

At the time of writing, DOGE was trading at $0.152.<\/p>\n

\"Dogecoin
DOGE rebounds from the multi-year trendline, 1-day chart | Source: DOGEUSDT on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Featured image generated with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n


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