{"id":13261,"date":"2025-06-20T04:41:19","date_gmt":"2025-06-20T02:41:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/?p=13261"},"modified":"2025-06-20T04:41:19","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T02:41:19","slug":"polymarket-assigns-89-probability-to-us-stablecoin-legislation-passing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/20\/polymarket-assigns-89-probability-to-us-stablecoin-legislation-passing\/","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket Assigns 89% Probability to US Stablecoin Legislation Passing"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Cryptocurrency enthusiasts are wagering on the likelihood that US legislation aimed at regulating payment stablecoins will progress, following a significant vote in the Senate and a public call from President Donald Trump to \u201cbring it to [his] desk.\u201d<\/p>\n

As of Thursday, the online betting platform Polymarket indicates<\/a> an 89% probability of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, or GENIUS Act, being approved by the US Senate and House of Representatives and subsequently signed into law by the president before 2026. The Polymarket wager appeared to be initiated approximately 18 hours after the bill was approved in the Senate<\/a> by a 68-30 margin on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

Betting on the GENIUS Act as of Thursday. Source: <\/em>Polymarket<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

It remains uncertain whether the bill will garner sufficient backing to pass the House in its current form, or whether lawmakers might introduce amendments to address concerns regarding Trump\u2019s affiliations with the crypto sector, including World Liberty Financial\u2019s stablecoin, USD1. A majority of senators opposed a comparable amendment prior to the GENIUS Act’s final passage, which transitioned the legislation to the House.<\/p>\n

Depending on the ultimate form of the bill, it could pave the way for US companies to issue their own stablecoins for transaction settlements. Tech giants such as Apple and Google were reportedly exploring<\/a> their own tokens, and two US senators directed inquiries to Meta regarding whether the company might have similar intentions if the bill were enacted.<\/p>\n

Related: <\/strong><\/em>Polymarket under scrutiny over $7M Ukraine mineral deal wager<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Onward to the House and then Trump\u2019s desk?<\/h2>\n

Trump has stated that he will sign<\/a> the GENIUS Act with \u201cno additional provisions\u201d if the House were to pass it swiftly. Republicans hold a narrow majority in the chamber and may soon encounter a floor vote on a proposal to create a framework for the crypto market. The CLARITY Act, which was approved by the committee<\/a> last week, could clarify the roles that US financial regulators would assume over digital assets.<\/p>\n