{"id":10347,"date":"2025-03-28T09:33:25","date_gmt":"2025-03-28T08:33:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/?p=10347"},"modified":"2025-03-28T09:33:25","modified_gmt":"2025-03-28T08:33:25","slug":"bitcoins-macro-index-bear-signal-raises-concerns-over-110k-price-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wsj-crypto.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/28\/bitcoins-macro-index-bear-signal-raises-concerns-over-110k-price-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"“Bitcoin’s Macro Index Bear Signal Raises Concerns Over $110K Price Recovery”"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) faces the possibility of descending into a new bear market as a significant set of BTC price indicators has shown a \u201cbearish divergence.\u201d<\/p>\n

During a discussion on social media<\/a> on March 27, Bitcoin analysts highlighted concerning signals from Capriole Investments\u2019 Bitcoin Macro Index.<\/p>\n

Creator says Bitcoin Macro Index decline is \u201cnot ideal\u201d<\/h2>\n

As BTC\/USD struggles to regain the vicinity of its all-time highs, onchain indicators are starting to lose their bullish momentum.<\/p>\n

The Bitcoin Macro Index, developed by Capriole in 2022, employs machine learning to evaluate data from numerous indicators that founder Charles Edwards states \u201cprovide a strong indication of Bitcoin\u2019s relative value across historical cycles.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe model solely focuses on onchain and macro-market data. Uniquely, price data and technical analysis are excluded as inputs in this model,\u201d he clarified<\/a> when introducing the tool initially.<\/p>\n

Since late 2023, the indicator has been producing lower highs while the price generates higher highs, resulting in a \u201cbearish divergence.\u201d While this is a common phenomenon in past bull markets, it suggests that BTC\/USD may have already reached a long-term peak.<\/p>\n

\u201cNot ideal,\u201d Edwards commented while sharing a screenshot of the Index posted on X by another user.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut… when the Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive, I won’t resist it.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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Capriole Bitcoin Macro Index. Source: @A_Trade_Academy\/X<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

BTC price indicators face recovery challenges<\/h2>\n

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Related: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin price prediction markets forecast BTC won\u2019t exceed $138K in 2025<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

In one of its \u201cQuicktake<\/a>\u201d blog postings this week, the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant identified four onchain metrics that are currently unstable.<\/p>\n

\u201cAll these metrics indicate that Bitcoin is encountering considerable turbulence in the short to mid-term,\u201d contributor Burak Kesmeci stated.<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, none of them suggest that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top condition.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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Bitcoin IFP chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The list comprises the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unspent Profit\/Loss (NUPL), in addition to the so-called Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric, which turned bearish in February<\/a>.<\/p>\n

For this to change, Kesmeci concluded, the IFP must rise above its 90-day simple moving average (SMA).<\/p>\n

This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading actions carry risk, and readers should perform their own research prior to making a decision.<\/p>\n