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Bitcoin remained around the mid-$100,000s on Thursday, Oct. 23, as Standard Chartered’s global director of digital assets analysis Geoffrey Kendrick cautioned that a drop below $100,000 by this weekend “seems unavoidable”—while adding that any break could be transient the last instance bitcoin ever trades below six figures. The comments, made in a mid-week client communication and shared by The Block, outline a tactical retreat within a still-intact macro bullish narrative the bank has advocated for months.
Final Bitcoin Decline Below $100,000 Ahead
Kendrick’s communication contrasts short-term wariness with long-term belief. In the same research update where Standard Chartered reconfirmed a projection of $200,000 by year-end—dependent on ETF interest, corporate treasury involvement, and a more favorable policy environment—the strategist has now highlighted a gap toward sub-$100,000 as the market processes October’s downturn and a slight rebound. “A drop beneath $100,000 now seems ‘inevitable,’” Kendrick mentioned on Wednesday, while emphasizing that any decline should be brief and potentially the “final-ever chance to acquire BTC for under six figures.”
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The adjustment follows an early-October swing that witnessed bitcoin struggle to maintain its recent local peak—Kendrick referred to the Oct. 10 risk-off break and the lack of a robust reflex rally—redirecting the bank’s attention to where the market finds its bottom rather than whether it promptly resumes the trend.
In the most recent note, Kendrick indicated a few milestones for a base-building stage, including observing capital rotation between gold and bitcoin and the trajectory of US dollar liquidity and quantitative tightening. He also noted that bitcoin has respected its 50-week moving average since early 2023, a level he considers as a critical longer-term line in the sand.
The short-term crosscurrents complicate, but do not overturn, Standard Chartered’s cycle agenda. As recently as July 2, the bank informed clients it anticipated the largest dollar rally on record in the latter half of 2025, with bitcoin reaching $200,000 by Dec. 31. This framing—ETF inflows, corporate balance-sheet adoption, and regulatory normalization as the primary drivers—remains central to Kendrick’s bullish outlook, even as he acknowledges a brief excursion below $100,000 is now likely. “The decline could symbolize the last opportunity to ever purchase BTC for six figures,” the latest report highlighted.
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Market context aligns with the cautionary short-term tone. Over the prior two weeks, bitcoin has lost approximately ten percent, with spot trading today hovering around $108,000 as liquidity diminishes heading into the weekend and macro sensitivity to policy updates stays heightened.
What matters moving forward is whether the confirmation signals Kendrick emphasized begin to align. A significant improvement in dollar liquidity conditions, sustained indications of a rotation back into bitcoin to the detriment of gold, and maintenance of higher-timeframe trend structures would validate the “last time below $100,000” assertion.
In the absence of those, a deeper retracement cannot be dismissed, but that scenario would represent a deviation from the bank’s published roadmap rather than its base expectation. For now, Standard Chartered’s message is clear: prepare for a dip below six figures, but regard it—quoting Kendrick directly—as “the last-ever chance to purchase BTC for under six figures,” assuming medium-term catalysts reassert.
At press time, BTC was trading at $109,953.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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